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So, the 16-Hour European Council summit has now come to an end, and the debate is raging on about whether Europe has succeeded, failed, whether our Union is collapsing or being strengthened, and whether the journalists should have been made to stay up all night drinking beers and coffees as our leaders debated our future.

At first glance, the December European Council looked reassuringly familiar: Ukraine, enlargement, migration, security, competitiveness. The usual choreography of unity, resolve, and carefully hedged ambition at a time of geopolitical crisis, transatlantic strife, and internal squabbling between member states.

Yet beneath the procedural calm, this Council meeting was highlighted as being a historic event, where Europe would be able to overcome several major geopolitical barriers and start throwing its weight around a little more.

It mattered precisely because it exposed something deeper and more uncomfortable: the EU’s governing reflex when confronted with long-term strategic responsibility under conditions of permanent political fragmentation.

This was not a Council that answered the question of where Europe is going, it was a Council that revealed how Europe moves when it cannot afford to stand still, but cannot quite agree on how to move forward. What emerged was not paralysis, but a distinctly European form of motion: incremental, legally cautious, politically defensive, and increasingly reliant on financial engineering rather than political consolidation.

The agenda was heavy because the moment was heavy, with Ukraine remaining a test not only of European solidarity but also of European endurance. The enlargement question continues to press against institutional limits that leaders are trying hard not to reopen publicly. Migration continues to corrode trust between capitals and play into the ongoing far-right culture war, all while defence and competitiveness hover between aspiration and delivery, seen as a litmus test of our ability to survive history itself.

And all of this unfolds against a backdrop of domestic fragility: elections, fiscal constraints, coalition politics, and a persistent fear of voter fatigue towards “European responsibility” as our former American allies under Donald Trump continue to assault our way of life.

This Council did not fail, and it’s important to underline this; however, it didn’t come out of the meeting smelling of roses either, and several major weaknesses and contributions were laid bare for the world, and particularly our enemies, to see.

So let’s dig into this

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The good

EUCO Agrees on Ukraine funding, the Union concretises common EU debt

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👋Hey guys, Julien here. The French Dispatch is a reader-supported publication, and both our coverage of current affairs as well as our ability to bring you more n…

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👋Hey guys, Julien here. The French Dispatch is a reader-supported publication, and both our coverage of current affairs as well as our ability to bring you more news and information on the world around us is entirely funded by paid subs…

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👋Hey guys, Julien here. The French Dispatch is a reader-supported publication, and both our coverage of current affairs as well as our ability to bring you more news and information on the world around us is entirely funded by …

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👋Hey guys, Julien here. The French Dispatch is a reader-supported publication, and both our coverage of current affairs as well as our ability to bring you more news and information on the world arou…

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👋Hey guys, Julien here. The French Dispatch is a reader-supported publication, and both our coverage of current affairs as w…

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2024 was a tumultuous year for the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD). Two large scandals involving disinformation tactics and another tied to criminal affiliations resulted in widespread attention and many discussions.

Yet, despite the media and public criticism, the SD emerged relatively undamaged regarding electoral support and trust. While seemingly paradoxical, this resilience reflects the deeper dynamics and behaviours of far-right politics in Europe.

The Troll Factory and The Wedding

Kalla Fakta (Cold Facts) , a TV4 channel investigative team, exposed the first scandal. Their reporting revealed a “troll factory” operated by individuals directly linked to the Sweden Democrats.

This coordinated and organised operation was done in order to spread disinformation as well as extreme and hateful rhetoric through fake social media accounts.

The operation was mainly targeting journalists, political rivals, and minority communities as Muslims. The far right campaign aimed to stimulate the SD’s ideological base while discrediting political and other opponents​​.

The second controversy was about the wedding party of SD leader Jimmie Aokesson. Among the attendees were members of criminal motorcycle gangs and individuals associated with anti-Semitism, racism, and conspiracy theories. The event, rife with questionable associations, ignited a month-long media storm, with newspapers and major platforms publishing daily articles on the scandal​.

Damage Control

Despite these scandals, the electoral support for the SD remained stable. There are several explanations and reasons for such development.

1. A Core Base Anchored In Political Tribalism

The Sweden Democrats' core supporters have behaviours similar to football ultrasand hooligans, but they share one key characteristic: strong loyalty irrespective of scandals.

Many dismiss mainstream media as biased, often branding it as "politically correct" and aligned against their interests. This skepticism insulates their allegiance, creating a near-impenetrable shield against media criticism and public outcry.

2. Immigration And Crime: The Priorities

Since 2022, immigration and crime are among more popular and dominating topics in Sweden’s political discourse, and these issues remain important for SD supporters, as seen in other EU member states.

Swing voters and core supporters may disapprove of Aokesson choices or the troll factory revelations, and may have strong feelings about the topic. However, they more or less continue to see the SD as the only party willing to address problems in Swedish society, or at the very least, support some of the party’s policies regarding what they perceive as existential threats to Swedish society.

3. A Tactical Silence from the Right-Wing Government

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and his Moderate Party government avoided much of the criticism of the SD during these crises.

Instead, they maintained a “business-as-usual” approach, reflecting the political reality that their administration depends on SD’s parliamentary support. This tacit alignment with the far-right mirrors a broader European trend, where mainstream conservatives increasingly collaborate with or accommodate far-right groups to sustain governing coalitions.

The European Parliament Elections “Punishment”

The 2024 European Parliament elections marked an unusual setback for the SD, as it did not increase its vote share for the first time in over two decades. The elections were seen as a disappointment for many leading and active members of the SD.

While this result drew internal criticism, it was mitigated by the abstention of “Swexit” supporters—voters ideologically opposed to the European Union who often avoid participating in EU elections. The limited impact of this misstep suggests that the SD’s broader political trajectory remains intact​.

Looking Ahead: A Precarious Political Landscape

As Sweden approaches its 2026 national elections, the SD's role in the ruling coalition remains to be determined. Rather than moderating its positions, the party has embraced more extreme rhetoric on immigration, culture, and crime.

This strategy appears designed to energise the SD’s most radical supporters, many of whom view the current political moment as their long-awaited opportunity for influence. This radical posture, however, may destabilise Sweden’s ruling coalition.

The SD’s capacity to withdraw parliamentary support constantly threatens the government’s stability, leaving the country’s political future hanging in the balance.

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On Friday 8^th November, the Irish prime minister, officially called Taoiseach (pronounced ‘Thee-shuck’), Simon Harris of Fine Gael, called a general election for Friday 28^th November to elect the 34th Dáil Éireann. Although the official campaign was short, unofficial campaigning began months ago, with the date for the general election the worst kept secret in Ireland.

With a growing population, the number of TDs (MPs) increase from 160 to 174, the highest ever. These are spread across 3 – 5 seat constituencies, growing from 39 to 43. As a country, Ireland has a deep and enduring fondness for the electorally mind-boggling system of Proportional Representation – Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV).

Malta is the only other country to use this system for parliamentary elections, while several legislatures in Australia are elected with PR-STV. The Victorian Electoral Commission has a handy video explaining it.

In terms of the election results, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, received a boost in seats, while the Green Party was decimated. Sinn Féin maintained its place as one of the three big parties, with the centre-left Social Democrats and Labour Party making big gains. Finally, right-wing parties such as Independent Ireland and Aontú made smaller increases.

The Irish electorate has spoken, but what have they said? How did the incumbents fair? Where did the grandparents and grandkids place their votes? And did the far-right make a breakthrough? These three key takeaways from the 2024 Irish general election are laid out below.

1. Incumbents were not crucified (except the Greens…)

Since the foundation of the Irish state in December 1922, two centre-right parties have dominated politics: Fianna Fáil (pronounced ‘Fee-nah Fall’) and Fine Gael (‘Fee-nah Gale’). They were born out of a split in an older iteration of present-day Sinn Féin (‘Shin Fey-in’) over the treaty with the UK after the Irish War of Independence (January 1919 – July 1921). Both would become the opposing sides in the subsequent Irish Civil War (June 1922 – May 1923).

In the decades afterwards, one would either lead the government while the other would lead the opposition. Fianna Fáil led around 70% of all Irish governments between 1922 – 2011. From the late 1950s to the late 1980s, both held over 80% of seats in Dáil Éireann, and as recently as at the November 1982 election, they held 87% of seats.

‘Civil war politics’, as it has been termed in Ireland, unofficially ended in 2016 when Fianna Fáil supported Fine Gael’s minority government. However, it was formally shuttered after the 2020 general election, when both entered government together (with the Greens), with Fine Gael entering government for a record third consecutive time since 2011.

Both centre-right parties went into the 2024 general election attempting the balancing act of trying to distinguish themselves apart in order to entice voters with election promises while defending the record of the government on key policy decisions.

For the 2024 election, I explained here for the French Dispatch the big issues that featured in the campaign, which included a crippling decade-long housing and homelessness crisis.

Despite the two centre-right parties “being in cahoots or coalition” with each other since 2016, the electorate rewarded them with additional seats, with Fianna Fáil now the largest party in Dáil Éireann for the first time since the 2007 election.

Based on first preference votes in the earlier table, it signals that 40% of people in Ireland want a continuation of the political status quo for the next five years. Indeed, the exit poll found that 31% favoured both parties returning into government together without others involved, the largest of such governing options presented in the exit poll.

It is a remarkable outcome considering the pattern of incumbent government parties suffering heavily at general elections across the EU. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael join the likes of New Democracy in Greece, who are the exception to this current electoral trend and were rewarded by voters come election time.

The same cannot be said, of course, of the Greens, who were left with just one seat. It follows a similar pattern for such parties in other EU countries recently, where their tide of popularity has gone out from under them compared to five years ago. Both Green Party MEPs from Ireland lost their seats at the European Parliament elections in June.

2. A generational divide

A very clear generational divide now exists between younger and older voters on who they gave their first preference to. As the graph below highlights, the exit poll found that Sinn Féin was the largest party for those aged 18 – 24 (29%) and 25 – 34 (36%), after which the numbers dip when looking at older age groups. Please see the graph below.

A source of this appeal to younger voters for Sinn Féin was its campaign message of change and an opportunity to have, for the first time ever, a government not led by Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. A left-wing nationalist party, its anti-establishment rhetoric appealed to younger voters during the 2010s on issues such as the housing crisis.

As a result, it has been able to broaden its base beyond working-class urban areas and along rural areas of the border with Northern Ireland.

For Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, their support grows as we move up through those older age groups, in particular those aged 50 – 64 and 65+. Throughout the election, they were able to highlight their record of managing the economy successfully, from the painful years of the EU – IMF bailout to shepherding it through the recent crises such as COVID-19.

In short, younger voters who feel that the two establishment parties are not solving their pressing needs, in particular housing, look towards Sinn Féin for a change in the political status quo. Meanwhile, older voters broadly see Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as the responsible, steady hand at the tiller to manage Ireland’s economy.

3. No right-wing breakthrough

While right-wing parties such as the Aontú (‘A-in-two’) and the newly established Independent Ireland made marginal increases in seats in Dáil Éireann, there was no breakthrough of the far-right. Such parties received very few first preferences, such as the Irish Freedom Party (0.6%), The Irish People (0.3%), the National Party (0.3%), or Irish First (0.1%).

Due to the significant recent increase in refugees coming into Ireland, it has been exploited by far-right parties and groups, pulling immigration into being politicised for the very first time in Ireland. This all boiled over onto the streets of Dublin city centre in November 2023, as the country was shocked as it witnessed a rare occurrence of violent riots.

However, when looking at the most important issue for voters in the general election were, immigration came fourth in the exit poll at 6%. The clear top issue was housing and homelessness at 29%, followed by the cost of living at 19%.

Although, at present, Ireland’s far-right presence remains on the political margins, Ireland is not immune to the rise of the far-right, and it remains to be seen over the coming years what their trajectory will be here.

What of government formation?

A new government will not be in place before Christmas, and it looks like government formation talks could last until well into January and possibly into February.

It is widely expected that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will enter government together for the second time. However, they are just short of a working majority, and with the Green Party no longer a viable coalition option, they have to look elsewhere.

It is not the first time in Irish coalition government history that the smaller party has been decimated after an election. It has given pause for thought for the Social Democrats and the Labour Party in terms of entering government.

The Labour Party looks to have been forgiven by the electorate for being in government with Fine Gael between 2011 – 2016, during the painful years of austerity. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats returned their highest number of seats since being founded in 2015. Both will likely wish to maintain their electoral gains and not end up like the Green Party.

The most likely outcome is that a number of independents will be approached and enticed with bilateral agreements that will benefit their constituencies. This was done for the 2016 – 2020 Fine Gael minority government, which remained stable and served its full term.

And people will indeed be looking for stability as Ireland and the EU brace for a challenging 2025 and beyond.

Ciaran O’Driscoll researches EU politics.

Thank you for reading the French Dispatch! If you liked what you read, you should like this post and subscribe to the newsletter by clicking/tapping the button below:

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With several months left in the current government term, the prime minister of Ireland officially called the Taoiseach (pronounced ‘thee-shuck’), announced on Friday, 8th November, the dissolution of the 33^rd Irish parliament, Dáil Éireann.

And just three Fridays later, the electorate will vote into office 174 members of that parliament. But what are the big election issues? Will Sinn Féin lead the next government? Will the far-right make their breakthrough?

These three key questions will all be answered for you here.

What are the big issues?

• Housing/homelessness

Since exiting the EU – IMF bailout in 2013, Ireland has become one of the richest countries in the EU. However, despite the economic success, the country is in the grips of a housing and homelessness crisis. There is an estimated shortfall of some 256,000 units and it is expected that 52,000 units will be built every year for 25 years to meet this shortfall. However, in 2023, around 33,000 units were built, and a similar figure is expected for 2024.

This has pushed up residential property prices, which are up 10.1% nationally and 10.8% in Dublin in the year to August. The national median price for a dwelling is now at €345,000. This has driven up rents, with the average now at €1,612 per month nationally and €1,829 in Dublin.

This crisis has spilled over into a deepening homelessness crisis, where in October there was a record number of 14,760 people accessing emergency accommodation, with 4,561 of those children.

• Cost of living

The outgoing government has produced give-away budgets to deal with recent challenges. Those left unemployed by COVID-19 received €350 a week, while every household will have received by next year some €1,000 to help deal with the high-cost energy bills due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, despite these budgets and that the rate of inflation is now at a three-year low of 0.7% in Ireland as of October, according to polling, 60% feel they have less money than they did last year.

• Health care

Ireland’s health service is nearly always an issue in any Irish general election. This year, key issues relating to it include continued overcrowding (over 10,500 people are waiting for admission to a bed), waiting lists (over 844,000 are waiting for some kind of hospital care), and broader shortages in medical staff and general practitioners. The spiralling costs of the much-delayed new National Children’s Hospital in Dublin (currently at €2.25 billion) is another election issue.

• Refugees / Immigration

The shortage of housing and the dramatic rise of refugees, in particular from Ukraine, has politicised immigration for the first time in Ireland. Opposition to this has developed into marches and demonstrations, in particular at locations linked or rumoured to be linked to house people seeking asylum, 31 of which have been subject to arson attacks.

Disinformation on social media and messaging apps by far-right parties and groups has helped fuel anger within a section of the public over immigration. This all boiled over onto the streets of Dublin city centre in November 2023, as the country was shocked as it witnessed a rare occurrence of violent riots.

According to polling, while it has dropped down as an electoral issue since local and European Parliament elections in June, immigration looks set to be a feature of Irish politics after this election as those on the far-right capitalise on it.

• Palestine

Ireland remains an outlier in the EU, as there is almost universal support for the plight of the people in Palestine in what Israel has inflicted on the Gaza Strip following Hamas’ abhorrent terrorist attack on 7 October 2023.

Ireland’s own centuries-long history of colonisation and occupation under British rule is the source of Ireland’s long-standing sympathy with Palestine.

To reflect this universalism in Ireland, ten party leaders of all political hues voiced support for Palestine and passing the Occupied Territories Bill in a 10-way party leader TV debate on RTÉ on Monday 18 November.

Will Sinn Féin lead the next government?

Yes. Well, that would have been the answer had the election taken place this time last year.

After topping the February 2020 general election vote, Sinn Féin (meaning ‘We Ourselves’ in Irish) remained the most popular party, reaching a high of around 36% according to Politico in August 2022.

Even a year ago, in November, it remained at around 30% in opinion polling.

A left-wing nationalist party, sitting in The Left group in the European Parliament, it remains deeply committed to Northern Ireland’s unification with Ireland. With anti-establishment rhetoric and its ability to appeal to younger voters over issues such as the housing crisis during the 2010s it was able to broaden its base beyond republican working-class areas and along rural areas of the border with Northern Ireland.

And with support levels closing in on 40%, Sinn Féin look set to be in government in both Belfast and Dublin. However, on the eve of the general election, it stood in third at 18% in polls. This decline can be linked to the politicisation of immigration over the last two years.

According to polling, it was the top issue for people at the local and European Parliament elections in June. Research found that voters who abandoned the party in the June elections viewed immigration as a top issue.

These voters moved to far-right parties, who were attracted by their anti-establishment rhetoric and harder views on immigration and refugees. Further, with Sinn Féin increasingly becoming viewed as ‘the government in waiting’, it moved to the centre on many policy issues, shedding those anti-establishment voters. Independents and others are now at around 21% according to Politico.

With this and with two out of the three parties in the outgoing government, Fine Gael (on 24%) and Fianna Fáil (on 20%), now having overtaken Sinn Féin, it appears the tide has gone out its chances to lead its first government in Dáil Éireann.

Will the far-right make their official debut?

As far-right parties grew in support across the EU in recent years, it was a movement that never materialised in Ireland, a country that was broadly conservative in the decades after the foundation of the state in 1922.

While a fracturing of Irish politics began in the 1990s, it stepped up a gear due to the economic turmoil and years of painful austerity following the 2008 financial crash. During those years, Irish politics moved leftwards with the growth of left-wing and centre-left parties.

However, as highlighted above, the recent politicisation of immigration has brought a new wave of right-wing and far-right parties into the mainstream. It remains to be seen (due to Ireland’s use of PR-STV) if far-right parties can make a similar breakthrough in this election as left-wing parties did throughout the 2010s.

At the same time, their support remains low overall and nationally. Out of the 949 local seats up for grabs in the June local election, just two went to far-right parties. But even one or two seats in Dáil Éireann will be viewed by them as a success.

The final results will all come down to transfers, as is so often said of Irish general elections.

Ciaran O’Driscoll researches EU politics.

Thank you for reading the French Dispatch! If you liked what you read, you should like this post and subscribe to the newsletter by clicking/tapping the button below:

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And if you’d like to contribute a coffee or two to help fuel my coverage of the wild world of politics, feel free to click on the picture below:

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👋Hey guys, Julien here. The French Dispatch is a reader-supported publication, and both our coverage of current affairs as well as our …

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While the Christmas break has definitely started for this year, there was a…

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The French Dispatch is a reader-supported publication. If you enjoy reading articles written by high-level experts, then make sure to support the publication by liking, subscribing, and sharing it with your friends and colleagues. You may even consider taking a paid subscription.

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As part of a government decree, the Italian government led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni introduced a windfall tax on lenders’ profits resulting from higher interest rates, with a planned levy of 40%.

The tax, which will be applied to the net interest revenue derived from the diffe…

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The recent violent protests and riots in Mitrovica in northern Kosovo between persons from the Serb minority and NATO-force KFOR soldiers have been reported in several European media. After the recent local elections, the situation is seen as a new example of violence, hate, and ethnicised political tensions.

T…

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This week

• 🇹🇼EU clarifies position on Taiwan

• 🤝Med states push for Africa Partnership

• 🌎Weber knifes Nature Restoration Act

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This week

• 🇬🇷Mitsotakis expected to win big in Greek Election

• 🇪🇺Update on EU candidacy for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

• 🧱No deal between Kosovo and Serbia yet

• 💣Thierry Breton turns his fire towards Twitter

🇬🇷Mitsotakis expected to win big in Greek Election

Kyriakos Mitsotakis is ready to maintain his power with the upcoming elections on Sunday 25th June.

Hoping to overcome the disappointment of the last General Election on May 21^st and looking to implement a program focused on investor-friendly reforms and reinforcing the Greek economy.

Fortunately for Mitsotakis, Néa Dimokratía currently holds a double-digit lead over its main rival, the left-wing party SYRIZA, with a 42% to 20% difference in the most recent poll-of-polls.

However, he will know to temper his expectations, as despite a similar lead in the May 21^st general election, Mitsotakis’ party failed to secure an absolute majority in the last elections on May 21^st, leading to the current limbo and the need for another snap election.

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This week

• 📈ECB expected to continue rate hikes

• 🤖AI act process reaches final stage

• 🇩🇪German climate change commitment challenges

• 💦Canfin’s ENVI catches fire over Nature Restoration Law

📈ECB expected to continue rate hikes

The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised the cost of borrowing in the eurozone to the highest level in 22 years. This was the ECB's eighth consecutive interest rate hike, taking the rate to 3.5%, the highest since 2001.

The decision comes at a time of persistently high inflation, with the ECB pledging more interest rate hikes next month and likely beyond. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine being the principal cause of the rapid increase in inflation and no end in sight, all financial actors are looking for a way to best manage the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

In addition to raising interest rates, the ECB also shelved any lingering stimulus from the crisis. Core inflation forecasts were also revised.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said another rate hike is likely in July, with the ECB now expecting inflation to remain above its 2% target until the end of 2025:

“Barring a material change to our baseline, it is very likely the case that we will continue to increase rates in July… Are we done? Have we finished the journey? No. We’re not at our destination. Do we still have ground to cover? Yes, we still have ground to cover.”

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