A Fractured Assembly and a Battered State
A Fractured Assembly and a Battered State
What were the big stories from election night? and what should we expect from the next few years?
This is a big one, so there’s a *slight* chance that it may get cut off at some point. So, make sure to read it on The French Dispatch site!
Also, if you have any specific questions about this election that haven’t been covered, don’t hesitate to get in touch! I’ll do what I can to answer any questions you may have in an upcoming edition!
And so here we are.
After over half-a-year of almost constant campaigning, a fraught presidential election, and two rounds of raw local politics, we finally have the end results of the 2022 election season.
While Ensemble, the coalition of La République en Marche / Renaissance, MODEM, and Horizon came in first place, the result was disappointing in many aspects, not least of which the fact that they only earned a relative majority, and missed an absolute majority by 43 seats.
Likewise, despite coming in strong in second place, the NUPES coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his La France Insoumise party felt disappointment in failing to unseat Macron and place their leader as the Prime Minister.
As you can see from the map above, there is a fairly even geographic spread for Ensemble (yellow), with the NUPES Coalition (Purple) doing well in central and southern France, as well as in eastern Paris.
The most interesting thing, however is the Rassemblement National, who were once stuck in northern France within the former mining regions. As you can see in the map above, they have spread across the country like wildfire, with large areas of control covering the south and south-east, eastern France, as well as it’s traditional grounds in the north.
Not only this, but the abstention rate reached yet another record high, with 53.77% of French citizens refusing to vote and showcasing the increased disconnect with the political establishment. If we have any chance of bringing the country together again and moving towards more positive politics, we have a lot of work to do to convince people to participate in the democratic process of our country.
But what about the parties??
Admittedly, while it’s nice to see the coalitions and how they fared, the reality is that most people are interested in what countries did well and which did not, and here is where the above breakdown can be helpful.
LaREM /Renaissance and it’s allies (171) came in first place, followed shortly by the Rassemblement National (90). In third place was La France Insoumise & co.(73), who came in ahead of Les Republicains (63) and MoDEM (48).
An Accidental Representative Parliament
One surprising turn of this election was that the parliament seems to have accidentally become more representative, with the makeup of the assembly being said to show the various political positions of the French population.
Whether this is a good thing or not, however, is up to you all, however, one things that will be problematic is that this could lead to a paralysed parliament, with France not having any tradition of political compromise a-la Scandinavia or Germany.
This could very easily lead to political paralysis in a hung government, which is incredibly dangerous with the invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation, a cost of living crisis, and whatever other crises may be on the horizon.
A Damaged Government
Another of the big stories last night was the sheer number of government ministers who failed to win their seats yesterday, and who therefore were forced to step down from the government.
Setting a new rule in 2017, Emmanuel Macron effectively pushed for the need for ministers to have political legitimacy of some kind to justify being ministers, which is why many of them were candidates in this election despite the obvious risks.
While there exists no constitutional or legal reason for those who lost their election to step down, any losers were obliged to do so due to this new rule and qualification system that was put in place.
Justine Benin was the first to loser her seat, followed by Amélie de Montchalin, and then at the end of the night, Brigitte Bourguignon was the last to fall; all three incredibly skilled, and all three being losses that the president will not be happy to have to go without
One of the big losses, however, was the President of the national assembly, and Emmanuel Macron’s lieutenant, Richard Ferrand, who was a solid hand in the assembly and was one of the key actors that the government, and the president relied on.
Losing to a novice socialist candidate, 38 year old teacher Mélanie Thomin, he was fortunately one of the last losses, with Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément, Beaune winning an incredibly tight race by a very small margin of 0.7%.
As Macron’s main man in Brussels, this night could have been much, much worse, but the president will be hurting from the loss of some very talented and respected ministers.
An Ascendant Rassemblement National
However, by far and away, there was one major shock in France that took everyone’s breath away, and this was the overwhelming push from Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, which went from a simple eight deputies in 2017 to a huge 89.
With an elevenfold increase, it has obliterated it’s previous record (35 seats in 1986) and is now able to create it’s own political group, which will increase its representation across the committees and also allow it to fully pay off it’s debts and begin building its war chest for incoming elections.
Whether they benefited from Le Pen’s dediabolisation of the party, voter disaffection, the incredibly high level of focus on Ensemble! and NUPES, or whether the party simple just got lucky, nobody will now.
What we do know is that the ability of the RN to cause damage and additional dysfunction alongside the typically disrupted LFI is not to be underestimated, and they will freely use it.
The NUPES Coalition Collapses Almost Immediately
Really? Yup.
Fresh of the heels of their second place victory in the legislative elections, the NUPES Coalition has crashed into the first few hurdles of this coming legislature, and took less than 18 hours to fall apart.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon immediately attempted to consolidate power over the members of the coalition, proposing that the four parties should unite under one single group in the parliament. Partly out of a need to control his environment, and partly out of a fear of Emmanuel Macron’s political manoeuvres, he decided to move quickly to secure his position.
Unfortunately, the left is a hard beast to tame. The other parties were not very keen on the idea, and were extremely quick to shut down any talk regarding this merged group.
The spokesperson of the Parti Socialiste immediately came out to shoot down the idea, stating that “It was never about a single group. There will be a socialist group in the National Assembly”, and the socialist group’s president followed shortly behind, underlining that “The left is plural, it is represented in its diversity in the National Assembly”.
The Ecologists equally came out and shut down the entire project, with the spokesperson stating that there was “no question of merging into a single group”.
This was then compounded by the La France Insoumise decision to trigger a censure of the French government on 5th July, which was also promptly shot down by first secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure. with a nice a concise statement that “it is not a common position at this stage".
If Mélenchon thought he’d have it his way, he may have been just as mistaken as when he claimed that he’d be called by Macron this Monday to be asked to be Prime Minister.
Yeah, exactly.
But what does this all mean?
Things are going to get dicey, but they’re far from dire for the embattled president.
Firstly, while the media has focussed on the “loss” of the Presidential majority, the reality is that this loss is not as profound as many assume. 43 seats short of the absolute majority, there is plenty of room for political agreements.
With five MPs from the centre, six from the left, and a relatively large portion of the 64 Les Republicains MPs liable to be able to be convinced to vote with him, there are ways in which the majority could earn votes from all sides on specific agreements.
Even more votes could be earned should the NUPES truly collapse, with the 28 socialist MPs not necessarily the types to be 100% against working with their former finance minister.
While some have floated the idea of Macron dissolving the parliament to get around any potential paralysis or blockages, the chances of this are low even if the President can do this whenever he wants according to certain readings of the constitution. It simply doesn’t make sense politically, will be very costly, and, historically, it tends to end badly.
On top of this, the trading for the top committees will begin soon, with the Rassemblement National expected to claim the highly coveted Finance committee, utilising its newfound power to throw its weight around. La France Insoumise will do everything it can to take as many of the top committees as it can, and will likely aim for the European Affairs committee as well as the Defence committee, both in an attempt to fulfil core aims of their platform: disobeying European law and ejecting France from NATO.
Aside from parliamentary arithmetic, and the immediate licking of wounds, all parties will begin to turn their eyes towards the 2024 European Parliamentary elections, preparing their war chests, strategies, alliances, and most importantly, their list of candidates. Interviews will begin in earnest, and discussions will begin to happen at the European level with the European parties and groups looking to make the most out of their French connection.
But this, my dear readers, is a story for another day.
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