🇨🇦Canadians go to the polls
What can we expect tonight as Canadians go to the polls, giving their vote to either the Liberal Mark Carney, or the Conservative, 'Maple Maga' candidate, Pierre Poilievre?
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Let’s set the scene for what will unfold in Canada tonight.
The Canadian electoral system: the basics.
At a very basic level, the Canadian political system is a parliamentary first-past-the-post system similar to the UK, with 343 seats distributed geographically based on population. The biggest trove of seats can be found in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia in that order.
The Canadian parliament has a fixed mandate of four years.
When newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney called the election, the Liberals led a minority government. The Conservatives were the official opposition. Smaller parties held the remaining seats: the New Democratic Party (social democrats), the Bloc Québécois (independentists), and the Green Party.
The polls close at around 3:30 am CEST in most of Canada, half an hour later in British Columbia. By 04:30, we should know which party will form the government.
However, the major question of the night, whether we will see a majority or minority government, will take an extra hour due to the calculations and counting that have to be completed.
The politics
Aside from the domestic politics, there has been one major shadow over the entire election: The US President.
As many of you know, President Donald Trump’s taunting threats of annexation, plus his punishing tariffs, have been constant, and has managed to turn the election upside down. On New Year’s Day, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre looked like he would win a thumping majority.
Not only would this have been a clear rebuke of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s politics, but this would have been yet another falling domino that many have claimed is the far-right wind throwing aside establishment, left-wing, and centrist parties.
Polilievre had actively worked to erode Justin Trudeau’s popularity with a message that Canada was broken. It resonated with many Canadians who felt economic grievance, who felt left-behind, and who had become tired of 10 years of Liberal government and the promises that had appeared broken.
That is, Canadians who wanted change.
Poilievre planned to run against Trudeau, yet his plan couldn’t foresee Trudeau stepping down and being replaced by a new face.
All of this has led to a new question on the ballot: Which leader can stand up to Donald Trump and defend Canadians?
According to polls, Canadians believe it’s Mark Carney, with Poilievre being seen as ideologically aligned with Trump, with the moniker “Maple MAGA” having been coined on many corners of the internet.
Mark Carney is admired by many as a crisis manager when he was Governor of the Bank of Canada and later the Bank of England, where he was considered a steady hand throughout the instability of the Brexit period.
His fortunes have been helped by the Trump question, which dominated the beginning of the campaign and helped Carney to hold a commanding lead in polls throughout much of the campaign.
However, that has now narrowed to between two and five points in the closing weeks of the campaign, which was helped in no small part by Donald Trump going (mostly) quiet, and the Conservatives gaining traction on pocketbook issues and the change question.
But the important question is: who will prevail? And will Trump’s latest eruptions, calling yet again for the annexation of Canada, make a difference?
Here are the three key things to watch
The anticipated collapse of two smaller parties and how that plays out. Voters may be less willing to back a party that has no chance of holding power, and with the stakes being high, this can have a big impact.
However, one big item to watch out for is the extent to which the Bloc Québécois and the NDP lose seats.
With conventional wisdom being that they will bleed seats to the Liberals, this will determine the fortunes of the two leading parties.
Vote efficiency. The popularity of the Liberals is more evenly distributed across constituencies than that of the Conservatives, who benefit from strongholds like Alberta. This typically evens the national popular vote.
Voter turnout. Advance voting over Easter weekend broke records, with Canadians clearly feeling motivated by ongoing events. Combined with stronger vote efficiency, this could push Mark Carney to victory, but this cannot be assumed to be the case.
We will know in the wee small hours of the European morning.
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An excellent explainer. Thanks for that :o) Good luck Canada!