France Beats Deficit Forecast, Macron Approval Climbs, Alstom Wins €915m Contract
INSEE figures beat government forecasts as the Lecornu government steadies the ship, Macron climbs in the polls, and French industry scores a huge win in Serbia
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This week
📊Polling update
📈Macron’s polling numbers jump over Iran
💼Alstom wins €1 billion mega contract in Serbia
🏦French 2025 deficit lower than expected
📊Polling update
So, let’s get the week started with a quick look at what may be the first serious poll of the 2027 presidential elections, which will yet again become a full feature here on The French Dispatch as we head into another election.
As a note: since nothing is set in stone, these scenarios vary wildly and thus should be taken with an even greater pinch of salt than usual. It should also be noted that the far right polls well in the first round, regardless of the candidate.
First round, Philippe, Bardella, Glucksmann scenario: With Philippe as the centrist candidate, the Macronist bloc wins its greatest vote share of any first-round scenario, with 20.5% in a first-round election. The far-right vote consolidates heavily around Bardella, who leads at 35%, well clear of the field. The left remains fragmented, with Glucksmann and Mélenchon splitting the vote perfectly at 10.5% each, and Fabien Roussel taking 3.0% of the vote share. Zemmour’s 3% confirms that the sovereignist electorate has largely migrated to Bardella, leaving little room for a competing far-right candidacy. De Villepin sees his election end here at 3.0%.
First round, Le Pen, Attal, Glucksmann scenario: While highly unrealistic, Le Pen gains a similar first-round score to Bardella at 34%, but the scenario reshapes the rest of the field considerably. Without Philippe, the centre collapses: Attal manages only 11.5%, coming in fourth place. Glucksmann rises to 12.5% and Mélenchon to 12%. Retailleau performs notably better at 10% in this scenario, suggesting that a section of the centre-right vote drifts rightward when the government candidate is weaker, and without the draw of Edouard Philippe to collect them.
Second round, Philippe vs Bardella: So, taking these in mind, Edouard Philippe would currently win a hypothetical run-off against Bardella, but only at 51.5% to 48.5%. The Republican Front holds, but its margin is historically narrow and would show a sharp fall from the victory margin when Macron beat Le Pen by over 17% in 2022.
Second round, Attal vs Le Pen: The most striking result in the poll. Le Pen beats Attal 51% to 49% in a hypothetical run-off. In this scenario, the Republican Front effectively collapses, with Attal losing some portion of the non-centrist electorate from either the left, the right, or both.
Now, while we’ll do a deeper dive sometime soon, it’s clear that the identity of the centrist candidate matters enormously: swap Philippe for Attal, and the result flips, while if we’re entirely honest, the identity of the far-right candidate doesn’t appear to matter all that much.
What does matter, and what has a huge effect on polling, is the position of left-wing candidates and the ongoing conflict between the far-left and centre-left, with Mélenchon always being present, and Glucksmann, the best performing centre-left candidate, always posting similar results.
And the sad thing is that this is unlikely to change, so the left will continue to have the major problem known as Jean-Luc Mélenchon, but we’ll get into that soon
📈Macron’s polling numbers jump over Iran
Sticking with polling for now, it turns out that public confidence in Emmanuel Macron has grown due to how he has positioned himself and represented the French people during a time of geopolitical turbulence.
Having fallen to a historic low of 25% confidence in October and December of 2024, Emmanuel Macron has since seen his presidential approval jump by 7%, reaching the 30s for the first time in almost a year.
One major reason for this, of course, is that the domestic situation has calmed down significantly, with the Lecornu government having managed to steady the ship and reduce the chaos and noise, undoubtedly helped by the focus on the municipal elections.
The other major reason, naturally, is that the geopolitical context has become so outrageously chaotic that French citizens are more often than not focused on that chaos in the Middle East, with Donald Trump’s war on Iran running rampant over everything.
However, the interesting thing will be seeing whether this continues and whether Macron will manage to keep raising his favourability numbers as his mandate slowly comes to an end.
💼Alstom wins €1 billion mega contract in Serbia
So, another big news week for French business: Alstom has signed a mega deal with the city of Belgrade, the capital of Serbia.
This mega deal will include “a full turnkey metro solution, including 32 Metropolis driverless three-car trains, signalling and telecommunications, power supply, trackwork, platform screen doors, depot equipment, a centralised control centre, and comprehensive cybersecurity systems. The metro will be equipped with Alstom’s advanced Urbalis CBTC technology, enabling fully automated, high-capacity and reliable operations.”
In short, this deal will provide everything required for the Line 1 metro to function over 15 kilometres and 15 stations.
All for the grand price of €915 million and being produced at the Alstom site in Valenciennes, ensuring that taxpaying jobs continue to be created in Metropolitan France.
The project will also benefit from French government funding support, due to French government’s wish to continue building the Franco-Serbian relationship.
In a press release, the President of Alstom Europe, Andrew DeLeone, has this to say:
“Belgrade’s decision to build its first fully automated metro is a pragmatic and bold investment in the city’s future and it reflects the strong leadership and vision demonstrated by the Serbian authorities. Metro Line 1 will fundamentally change how nearly two million residents navigate their city, providing a reliable and safe alternative to road transit. This project is not just about mobility; it is about delivering the modern infrastructure necessary for Belgrade to sustain its growth and meet its long‑term economic and climate objectives”
🏦French 2025 deficit lower than expected
Finishing up the week with some good news: The French deficit was much better in 2025 than initially expected.
Offering the French government a rare piece of good news, the figures published by the national statistics institute INSEE on Friday showed that the public deficit stood at 5.1% of GDP last year, 0.3 points below the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 5.4% and down 0.7 points from 2024. INSEE attributed the improvement to revenues “accelerating due to higher taxes.”
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu welcomed the numbers on Twitter:
“The 2025 deficit stands at 5.1%, compared with the projected 5.4% – better than expected.
Public spending is under control.
A more responsible approach, without undermining the social model or growth.When we stick to a simple approach – responsibility, stability, control – the finances improve without any sudden shocks.
Results, not promises or pointless political rhetoric.The approach is paying off. But so is political stability.
We are continuing — with caution — to get below 5% in 2026.
The geopolitical situation will play a part, but so will our collective will.”
The better-than-expected deficit also helped bring down the public debt ratio, which fell to 115.6% of GDP at the end of 2025, a 1.6-point improvement on the end of September. Public Accounts Minister David Amiel told TF1 early on Friday that the 2025 figures should “invite ambition” for further deficit reduction next year, while promising that the government would not “add debt to debt”
The government has set a 2026 deficit target of around 5% of GDP. That objective looked more within reach before the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February, which is expected to weigh on economic growth and, with it, tax revenues.
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I am writing a lot about Serbia since the end of 2024 when the large protests started. Serbia is one of the most corrupted places regarding public infrastructure projects and similar. A lot of money from investments ends up in the hands of the ruling political party members and supporters.