🇮🇪Irish General Election: Three Key Qs Answered
Ireland’s general election will grapple with housing, healthcare, and immigration crises, as Sinn Féin’s support dips and far-right movements seek a foothold in a shifting political landscape.
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With several months left in the current government term, the prime minister of Ireland officially called the Taoiseach (pronounced ‘thee-shuck’), announced on Friday, 8th November, the dissolution of the 33rd Irish parliament, Dáil Éireann.
And just three Fridays later, the electorate will vote into office 174 members of that parliament. But what are the big election issues? Will Sinn Féin lead the next government? Will the far-right make their breakthrough?
These three key questions will all be answered for you here.
What are the big issues?
Housing/homelessness
Since exiting the EU – IMF bailout in 2013, Ireland has become one of the richest countries in the EU. However, despite the economic success, the country is in the grips of a housing and homelessness crisis. There is an estimated shortfall of some 256,000 units and it is expected that 52,000 units will be built every year for 25 years to meet this shortfall. However, in 2023, around 33,000 units were built, and a similar figure is expected for 2024.
This has pushed up residential property prices, which are up 10.1% nationally and 10.8% in Dublin in the year to August. The national median price for a dwelling is now at €345,000. This has driven up rents, with the average now at €1,612 per month nationally and €1,829 in Dublin.
This crisis has spilled over into a deepening homelessness crisis, where in October there was a record number of 14,760 people accessing emergency accommodation, with 4,561 of those children.
Cost of living
The outgoing government has produced give-away budgets to deal with recent challenges. Those left unemployed by COVID-19 received €350 a week, while every household will have received by next year some €1,000 to help deal with the high-cost energy bills due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, despite these budgets and that the rate of inflation is now at a three-year low of 0.7% in Ireland as of October, according to polling, 60% feel they have less money than they did last year.
Ireland’s health service is nearly always an issue in any Irish general election. This year, key issues relating to it include continued overcrowding (over 10,500 people are waiting for admission to a bed), waiting lists (over 844,000 are waiting for some kind of hospital care), and broader shortages in medical staff and general practitioners. The spiralling costs of the much-delayed new National Children’s Hospital in Dublin (currently at €2.25 billion) is another election issue.
Refugees / Immigration
The shortage of housing and the dramatic rise of refugees, in particular from Ukraine, has politicised immigration for the first time in Ireland. Opposition to this has developed into marches and demonstrations, in particular at locations linked or rumoured to be linked to house people seeking asylum, 31 of which have been subject to arson attacks.
Disinformation on social media and messaging apps by far-right parties and groups has helped fuel anger within a section of the public over immigration. This all boiled over onto the streets of Dublin city centre in November 2023, as the country was shocked as it witnessed a rare occurrence of violent riots.
According to polling, while it has dropped down as an electoral issue since local and European Parliament elections in June, immigration looks set to be a feature of Irish politics after this election as those on the far-right capitalise on it.
Palestine
Ireland remains an outlier in the EU, as there is almost universal support for the plight of the people in Palestine in what Israel has inflicted on the Gaza Strip following Hamas’ abhorrent terrorist attack on 7 October 2023.
Ireland’s own centuries-long history of colonisation and occupation under British rule is the source of Ireland’s long-standing sympathy with Palestine.
To reflect this universalism in Ireland, ten party leaders of all political hues voiced support for Palestine and passing the Occupied Territories Bill in a 10-way party leader TV debate on RTÉ on Monday 18 November.
Will Sinn Féin lead the next government?
Yes. Well, that would have been the answer had the election taken place this time last year.
After topping the February 2020 general election vote, Sinn Féin (meaning ‘We Ourselves’ in Irish) remained the most popular party, reaching a high of around 36% according to Politico in August 2022.
Even a year ago, in November, it remained at around 30% in opinion polling.
A left-wing nationalist party, sitting in The Left group in the European Parliament, it remains deeply committed to Northern Ireland’s unification with Ireland. With anti-establishment rhetoric and its ability to appeal to younger voters over issues such as the housing crisis during the 2010s it was able to broaden its base beyond republican working-class areas and along rural areas of the border with Northern Ireland.
And with support levels closing in on 40%, Sinn Féin look set to be in government in both Belfast and Dublin. However, on the eve of the general election, it stood in third at 18% in polls. This decline can be linked to the politicisation of immigration over the last two years.
According to polling, it was the top issue for people at the local and European Parliament elections in June. Research found that voters who abandoned the party in the June elections viewed immigration as a top issue.
These voters moved to far-right parties, who were attracted by their anti-establishment rhetoric and harder views on immigration and refugees. Further, with Sinn Féin increasingly becoming viewed as ‘the government in waiting’, it moved to the centre on many policy issues, shedding those anti-establishment voters. Independents and others are now at around 21% according to Politico.
With this and with two out of the three parties in the outgoing government, Fine Gael (on 24%) and Fianna Fáil (on 20%), now having overtaken Sinn Féin, it appears the tide has gone out its chances to lead its first government in Dáil Éireann.
Will the far-right make their official debut?
As far-right parties grew in support across the EU in recent years, it was a movement that never materialised in Ireland, a country that was broadly conservative in the decades after the foundation of the state in 1922.
While a fracturing of Irish politics began in the 1990s, it stepped up a gear due to the economic turmoil and years of painful austerity following the 2008 financial crash. During those years, Irish politics moved leftwards with the growth of left-wing and centre-left parties.
However, as highlighted above, the recent politicisation of immigration has brought a new wave of right-wing and far-right parties into the mainstream. It remains to be seen (due to Ireland’s use of PR-STV) if far-right parties can make a similar breakthrough in this election as left-wing parties did throughout the 2010s.
At the same time, their support remains low overall and nationally. Out of the 949 local seats up for grabs in the June local election, just two went to far-right parties. But even one or two seats in Dáil Éireann will be viewed by them as a success.
The final results will all come down to transfers, as is so often said of Irish general elections.
Ciaran O’Driscoll researches EU politics.
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