🇮🇹 The Italian political landscape shapes up for the European Elections
Ursula von der Leyen's Second Term Hinges on Italy's Political Dynamics, and nobody knows what Giorgia Meloni will do
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The Italian political landscape has long been known for its instability and fragmentation, and the run-up to the European Elections is no exception.
Forty-two parties have filed their symbols with the Ministry of the Interior, which oversees the elections. However, not all of them will appear on the ballot paper, and not all of them hold the same level of significance for Italian politics.
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Despite a decline in Prime Minister Meloni’s popularity, as illustrated in the image above, her political party, the national conservative Fratelli d’Italia (European Conservatives and Reformists, ECR), is widely expected to secure first place with approximately 27% of the total votes.
Polls indicate that the centre-left Partito Democratico (Socialists & Democrats, S&D) is set to come second with around 22%. The populist Five Star Movement, which continues to grapple with its European identity and currently lacks affiliation with a European party, is likely to place third with about 15%. Forza Italia (European People’s Party, EPP) and Lega (Identity and Democracy, ID) are competing for fourth place.
The liberal Stati Uniti d’Europa (Renew Europe, RE), Azione (RE), and the left-wing Alleanza Verdi Sinistra (Group of the United Left/Nordic Green Left, GUE/NGL) are also expected to surpass the 4% threshold necessary for securing seats in the new European Parliament.
This is anticipated to result in 23 MEPs for the ECR, 18 for the S&D Group, 13 for the Five Star Movement, 7 for ID, 8 or 9 for the EPP, and 4 or 5 each for Renew and GUE/NGL. According to seat projections, this would position the Italian delegation within the ECR as one of the largest, if not the largest.
The image below shows the latest polls for the EU elections, published on 21 May.
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What to look out for
There are three main trends to watch while you enjoy your popcorn and follow how Italians have voted this time.
The first trend to observe is the proximity of Fratelli d’Italia’s vote share to that of the Partito Democratico (PD). Should the PD manage to inch closer to Fratelli d’Italia, even narrowing the gap to within 2%, it could threaten Meloni’s internal stability and lead to several questions.
The second trend to observe is whether Forza Italia will surpass Lega. After Lega’s impressive performance in the 2019 EU elections, securing slightly over 34% of the votes, Deputy Prime Minister and populist figure Matteo Salvini’s party now risks being outperformed by Forza Italia.
Recently, the two parties, particularly their leaders Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini, have clashed over differing views on the EU. Furthermore, if Lega performs poorly in these EU elections, Salvini could face internal challenges to his leadership, which could lead to the end of an era.
The third trend is whether Azione will exceed the 4% threshold to gain representation. Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and former MEP Carlo Calenda are known for their egos in Italy. After garnering a centrist alliance that garnered over 2 million votes and nearly 8% in the 2022 elections, they have since parted ways and become political rivals.
While polls indicate that Renzi’s Stati Uniti d’Europa is likely to secure seats, Azione’s future is less certain, with some polls suggesting it might exceed the 4% threshold, while others suggest it may fall short.
What are the possible consequences at the EU level
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Incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen may encounter significant challenges in her bid for a second mandate, many of which stem from the Italian political landscape.
Firstly, von der Leyen needs to secure a qualified majority among Heads of State and Government in the European Council to gain a second mandate. Her support is waning, particularly from France, where President Emmanuel Macron has been reportedly gauging other leader’s appetite to have Mario Draghi as an alternative.Â
This rumour has caused debate in Brussels and provoked an outcry from von der Leyen’s EPP and its Spanish member, the Partido Popular. The European Council’s decision is expected on 27th June, just 18 days after the EU elections.
Secondly, von der Leyen must gain the support of 361 MEPs in the European Parliament. Although the current majority of the EPP, S&D, and Renew is likely to hold, many MEPs, especially from the centre-left S&D, may not support a President who has announced that she is willing to work with the ECR and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
This was brought to the front when the centre-left Commission candidate Nicolas Schmit criticised von der Leyen’s openness to the ECR, stating that fundamental rights cannot be compromised for political arrangements.
Thirdly, the choice of the next Commissioner hailing from Italy could present another challenge. To avoid any potential sniping from MEPs of the EPP, S&D and RE groups that threaten to shoot down her candidacy, von der Leyen may want to woo the votes of part of the future ECR delegation.
Due to this, we also can’t forget that Giorgia Meloni is not only the Italian Prime Minister but also the President of the ECR itself. As is normal in politics, support does not come without a cost. In this case, this cost might translate into offering a significant portfolio to an Italian Commissioner, possibly in Agriculture, the Internal Market, or Defence, topped off even with a Vice Presidency.
This might be a double-edged sword for von der Leyen, as it could potentially alienate centre-left support, as Nicolas Schmit has firmly opposed making deals with the ECR and sitting on the same Commission with ECR Members.
The Italian voters' decisions may once again shape the EU's future. Will von der Leyen accept Meloni’s support at the risk of losing centre and centre-left backing, or will she reject ECR deals and govern from the centre? Her decision will soon be clear, hopefully not while we’re all under beach umbrellas after a long, cold autumn in Brussels.
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VDL has tried to sell her soul to the devil in order to become a more popular politician but instead she ended up losing more cred and influence , and has in practice been humiliated by Meloni