⏰The Lecornu Government is Collapsing Before it Forms
A new format, Prime Minister Lecornu works towards a political statement on Tuesday while forming his government, and has already been threatened with motions of censure by the left and far-right.
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This week
🆕New weekly format
🤝Lecornu pushes towards likely doomed government formation
🗳️Faure: “We are heading straight for censorship”
👇Marine Le Pen threatens to bring down the government
🆕New weekly format
Right, ladies and gentlemen, before we get on to the meat of the week, quick announcement:
Due to popular demand, I’m launching a new Weekly European Update, in the form of these Substack live sessions on Friday afternoons, where I’ll cover the biggest stories from the European Union and our continent.
You can see the first edition here:
Weekly European Update - Copenhagen Summit
This week, the European Council held an informal meeting in Copenhagen, alongside a meeting of the European Political Community. But what was announced on European defence and Ukraine?
For the time being, this will be the only new format, but I’m still considering the idea of a larger, subscriber-only Q&A on a monthly basis, which you may hear more about later on.
🤝Lecornu pushes towards likely doomed government formation
Right, let’s kick the week off strong, my dear readers.
With Sébastien Lecornu having been nominated by President Emmanuel Macron to be Prime Minister in early September, the former Minister of the Armies has working to figure out what kind of government he can form, who he can work with, what he can offer, and how much of his political ideas he can actually apply in the current situation.
Which, as I covered here, is not much better than when Bayrou was around.
🇫🇷Lecornu Replaces Bayrou, Fitch Downgrades France, and RN Plans Le Pen Amnesty Law
Sébastien Lecornu becomes France’s new Prime Minister after François Bayrou’s fall, Fitch cuts the nation’s credit rating, and the Rassemblement National works on Le Pen amnesty law.
Bref.
Unfortunately, for everyone, and as predicted by yours truly, it appears that nobody quite understands that doing the same thing as under Bayrou is the worst decision possible, and this is what the Lecornu government appears to be intent on doing.
In a document revealed by BFM.TV that was sent to Renaissance, Les Républicains, Mouvement Démocrate, Horizons and Union des Démocrates et Indépendants, also known as the ‘Socle Commun’, the Lecornu roadmap calls for “neither immobility nor forced passage”, and called for unity.
“With only a very narrow majority, the government will have to compromise with other political parties without abandoning its convictions.”
- Lecornu statement in the roadmap
In terms of the priorities outlined in this document, the primary goal is clearly to make sure that France has a 2026 budget, which must “ensure the stability of the country”, achieve a “reduction of public spending”, and all while achieving a “fairer and more equitable sharing of the efforts to be made.”
The roadmap also announced a focus on driving growth in the French economy while defending French companies, investments in pensions/health, protecting the purchasing power of French citizens, and defending French “sovereignty and autonomy in the fields of energy, agriculture and industry.”
Lecornu has also promised to continue the fight against “fraud in all forms, whether tax or social”, while committing his government to combating crime, incivility, and defending “everyday safety”.
He even called on his future government to “reform the state in depth” in order to “make the public service more efficient”
Part of the roadmap was a big statement that I honestly believe was intended as a peace offering from Lecornu to the Parti Socialiste, but everything so far has been such a replay that I have no reason to believe it matters:
“We believe in parliamentary democracy, local democracy and social democracy: the time has come to share power more, so that everyone can refocus on the responsibilities assigned to them. This is also how we will save money.”
Now, while Lecornu will make his declaration of general policy on Tuesday 7 October 2025, and he’s signalled his intent to discuss and work with the other political parties, my question as a Social Liberal who is a part of Emmanuel Macron’s party is: how?
How on earth do you manage to square any of this with what the opposition has been saying since the ill-advised elections that our President called after the Presidential Majority got whipped in the European Parliamentary Elections?
How do you square any of this with the reasons that were given by the *entirety* of the opposition forces for bringing down Francois Bayrou’s government?
As a quick reminder, these were the results of François Bayrou’s vote of confidence:
This doesn’t politically make sense, and everything that is happening now is, in my opinion, dragging us towards another government collapse, and potentially the very problematic scenario where we have no budget at the beginning of next year.
All of this after Prime Minister Lecornu seemed to indicade no less than three weeks ago that he was planning to work with the Parti Socialiste to try to grow the government majority, which you keen readers will remember Les Republicains weren’t all too chuffed about.
Oh, and I forgot to add that a leak indicated the Lecornu government was planning to cut tax benefits for trainees, apprentices, and young people who work during their studies, as they’re clearly the ones weighing down the French economy, before renouncing this plan earlier this week.
But, for the time being, people argue that Lecornu promising to give up the use of Article 49.3 of the French constitution to force through legislation is enough of a peace offering.
Anywho, moving on…
🗳️Faure: “We are heading straight for censorship”
Can you tell how surprised I am?
Naturally, with all of these announcements, it’s no surprise that First Secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, stated that Sébastien Lecornu’s budget is “a copy-paste of François Bayrou’s,” and he’s clearly less than impressed.
In an interview with Le Parisien, Faure made it clear how deeply unsatisfied he was with the draft budget, and emphasised that he fully expects there to be another government censorship.
Despite Lecornu’s promises of “a break in method and substance” and his promises to “flip the table”, Faure made it clear that he has seen no evidence of this, that he hasn’t “found any trace” of the compromises that we signalled, and that he’s particularly disappointed by the financial proposals being made.
One example he gives was the promises of “a tax on financial assets of family holdings”, as a response to the Zucman tax pushed by the Parti Socialiste to bring €15 billion in revenue, which will only earn €1.5 billion.
Faure has set a hard deadline for there to be some movement from the government, stating that if the PS “have not been heard” by the end of the general policy discussion taking place on Tuesday 7 October 2025, the PS will table a motion of censure immediately.
Unfortunately, for everybody involved in the government’s work, there seems to be no space for movement anymore.
Lecornu, speaking to Le Parisien about two weeks ago in an interview where he made it clear that reducing the French deficit was a priority for his government, he also stated that he did not support the Zucman tax.
The reason given is that taxing professional assets, such as factories, machines, and patents, would have a damaging impact on employment, investment, and the competitiveness of French companies.
Lecornu also argues that without French capital to defend French economic sovereignty against predatory foreign behaviours, the Council of Economic Analysis estimates that the Zucman tax would bring in less than €5 billion, as opposed to the €15-25 billion that its supporters claim.
Which isn’t going to help him much, because:
👇Marine Le Pen threatens to bring down the government
[Insert sardonic comment here]
Unfortunately, when you choose to make the same mistakes yet again, you can’t really expect any different results, can you?
And before I say anything else:
So, all that in mind: Marine Le Pen has joined the Parti Socialiste in making it clear that if she sees any lack of movement towards the positions of the Rassemblement National, that she will censure Sébastien Lecornu.
And what does she want?
A reduction in immigration
A reduction in the state
A reduction in Fraud
A reduction of the French contribution to the European Union
And for the record: all of these together are a red line, which means that if one of these isn’t achieved, the RN is planning to bring down Lecornu.
And for those who know your French and European politics, take a guess at what amongst these demands a pro-European Liberal government isn’t going to do.
The really sad thing about all of this is that it’s all politics. Successive Centrist governments have been working to reduce immigration, simplify the state, and reduce fraud. The problem is that these kinds of things are often very hard to notice in real life, making it easy for those in power to manipulate the perception of citizens around them.
But all of this is in the service of potential political avenues for the Lepennists, who are in the eternal quest for power, and who are hoping for one of the following outcomes in order of probability:
To make the political environment so toxic and untenable that Emmanuel Macron triggers the anticipated legislative elections
If they can’t force elections, to force Jordan Bardella into the position of Prime Minister (which would last maybe a handful of days)
Failing these, bringing down Emmanuel Macron and removing him as President
Now, with the polls as they are, if there were elections, the Rassemblement National would do very well in the first round of the elections, but there are serious questions about how well it would do in the second round with the cordon sanitaire, which limited the RN in 2024.
However, they’re simply seeking the slimmest majority possible in order to take power, with one of their major policy goals being to create an amnesty law for Marine Le Pen, allowing her to run for the presidency in 2027.
Which, as covered in a previous Weekly Dispatch, would likely not be possible, would be taken down by the Constitutional Council, and which would require a constitutional change.
Who doesn’t love French politics.
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