🇫🇷Lecornu Replaces Bayrou, Fitch Downgrades France, and RN Plans Le Pen Amnesty Law
Sébastien Lecornu becomes France’s new Prime Minister after François Bayrou’s fall, Fitch cuts the nation’s credit rating, and the Rassemblement National works on Le Pen amnesty law.
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This week
🔄Bayrou out, Lecornu in
💭So, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu
🇩🇰Denmark chooses Franco-Italian SAMP/T over US Patriots
📜Far-right plans amnesty law for Le Pen
💶Fitch downgrades French credit rating
📚Quick note
So before we dig into the meat of this week:
I wrote an op-ed on how the political mess in France has shown we desperately need a new political culture in France, and you can read it in English over at The Parliament Magazine or in French at Chez Julien.
Not only this, but I streamed Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the European Union over on Twitch, which you can now go and watch over on my Youtube channel (yes, my mic was muted for the first 16 minutes, teething issues etc.)
Follow, subscribe, let me know what you thought, and let’s keep going.
🔄Bayrou out, Lecornu in
So, ladies and gentlemen let’s start the week off with the big news of the week: François Bayrou’s government fell on Tuesday, as expected, with an overwhelming majority of the Assemblée National voting against his motion of confidence.
Despite the fact that Bayrou genuinely believed that he would find a way to convince moderates on either side to support him, and despite his last-minute gambit offering concessions on several key topics, he failed to peel away any deputies, and found himself with 364 deputies voting against him.
When you look at the breakdown of the vote of confidence, things look even worse for Bayrou, with the 194 votes in favour of his confidence motion having almost exclusively come from his coalition.
Though, with Les Républicains being Les Républicains, only half of them backed their government, 13 voted to bring it down, and nine were just having a good time being involved.
Many were surprised to see that not a single Socialist politician abstained at the very least, with Bayrou’s efforts having been almost exclusively on offering them concessions to get him through the tough vote. The problem with this strategy, naturally, was that the Socialists were the ones who put down a motion of censure back before the summer, and who have been manoeuvring themselves into position to win Matignon
What we did expect, however, was the showing from the far-left, and the far-right, who not only want to bring down the government over and over until they force an election, but desperately want to use the situation to force Emmanuel Macron out of the Elysée so that they can make a run at the Presidency while polling is in their favour.
Just don’t tell Mélenchon that the left don’t want him up there, especially not with the burgeoning war between the far-left La France Insoumise and just about everyone at the PS.
💭So, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu
Right, first of all: Lecornu is being forced into a sprint from the get-go, with a clear majority to remove any Macronist Prime Minister from office existing and time really not being on his side.
In terms of policy agenda, Lecornu has already promised “ruptures” with the former government in both policy and method. He almost immediately announced publicly in Sud Ouest that the removal of two public holidays was no longer on the table for the 2026 budget.
“I want those who work to be spared. That's why I decided to withdraw the abolition of two public holidays”
- Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu speaking to regional press
He has also announced his plans to conduct a “modern and frank parliamentary discussion” in order to unblock the situation and find a path forward with the Parti Socialiste, EELV, and the Parti Communiste Français on the budget.
Part of this is his announcement that he was open to work on “questions of tax justice” when asked whether he’d potentially consider the Zucman tax, which is undoubtedly counterbalanced by the fact that he refused to relaunch a conclave on pensions, as well as him staying that he “did not want to be forced to use” Article 49 of the constitution to force through any legislation.
Now, in terms of reactions, the Secretary General of the Confédération Générale du Travail (CGT) Union, Sophie Binet, called the maintenance of the two public holidays “a first victory”, and stated that “it confirms that we are in a position of strength and it motivates us even more to strengthen the strike and the demonstrations of September 18.”
Simultaneously, she said that is was “absolutely not enough” and that “if the Prime Minister thinks the numbers will add up (...), he's deluding himself”, making it clear that the CGT expected more concessions before there would be any political eace.
Slightly less performatively and more constructively, the Secretary General of the CFDT, Marylise Léeon, said that this was “the first good news” but that there “is still a lot to do to balance the budget.”
There are also already some interesting names being suggested for the Lecornu government, which doesn’t seem afraid to lean further to the left than Bayrou did.
One of the first names to be raised as a potential minister was the Socialist Jérôme Guedj, who appears to be part of Lecornu’s plans to find some form of cross-party unity, as well as trying to pry the more moderate left-wing parties away from the far-left La France Insoumise.
Regardless, consultations are expected to begin next week, with PM Lecornu promising “a major act of decentralisation, clarification and local freedom” from his government.
So let’s see how long this Prime Minister lasts, and whether France will find a way out of the aggressively unstable politics of recent years.
🇩🇰Denmark chooses Franco-Italian SAMP/T over US patriots
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So, taking a small break from French politics: Denmark has made the choice to purchase the Franco-Italian SAMP/T missile system.
In an announcement on Friday 12 September 2025, the Danish government announced that their Defence conciliation group agreed to a “history investment in ground-based air and missile defence systems”, choosing to procure eight of the European system in the “largest single investment to date in the reconstruction of the Danish Armed Forces.”
Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen had this to say:
“The current security policy situation means that ground-based air defense is an absolute top priority in the construction of the Armed Forces. The experience from Ukraine shows that ground-based air defense plays a crucial role in relation to the protection of the civilian population against Russian attacks from the air.
I am therefore very pleased that a decision has been taken with the conciliation group on a significant investment in additional ground-based air defence systems. From this year, the Armed Forces can look forward to the first part of the Armed Forces' ground-based air defence being put into operational use, and I am pleased that the conciliation group is reacting in the long term to the security policy development”
The total cost of acquiring and operating the missile defence systems is currently estimated to be around DKK 58 billion (€7.77 billion EU), and is intended to be used to create a defensive shield around Denmark to protect “the civilian population, cities, military objects and critical infrastructure.”
📜Far-right plans amnesty law for Le Pen
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Back to France, we now have another good idea about why the French far-right are so aggressively pursuing the end of any French government and Emmanuel Macron’s Presidency.
It came out this week in several publications that the lepenist Rassemblement National’s programme, in the event of early legislative elections, would include the plan to create a law that would give Marine Le Pen amnesty following her being found guilty of embezzlement to the tune of millions.
This would effectively remove Marine Le Pen’s five-year ban from political office, and would be tailor-made to allow convicted criminal Marine Le Pen to run for the French presidency in 2027.
Because what is the rule of law anyway, but a tool to be completely ignored when it benefits wealthy, authoritarian political parties who want to reshape a country?
The amusing aspect of this is that if they were to vote this through, the Constitutional Council would likely shut it down very quickly, and the law would be heavily criticised.
In order to avoid this, the Lepenists would need either a referendum, or a three-fifths majority across both the Assemblée and the Senate to change the constitution, in order to give themselves the powers to do this.
And considering the fact that 64% of French citizens were in favour of maintaining the provisional execution of Le Pen’s political ban while she appealed the decision, this whole situation may not work out they way the French far-right hope.
💶Fitch downgrades French credit rating
So, as many feared and many expected: the Fitch Ratings agency downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+ this Friday, four days after François Bayrou's government was brought down by the left and the far-right.
For the uninitiated: Fitch Ratings, as well as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, are agencies that assess the ability of borrowers to repay their debts, and are seen as indicators of how smart it is to lend to these people.
The reason for this: The French government is currently sitting on a debt of around €3,400 billion euros, constant blockages and political division are preventing the French state from finding a way to reduce this debt, and a government was just brought down over a budget that was intended, for better or for worse, to bring the debt down.
Not only this, but the “Block everything” protests didn’t help either.
Now, for the time being, the downgrade won’t have too much impact as this was already priced in. However, the problem is that France was downgraded in October 2024 to AA-, indicating a worrying pattern that, if continued, will eventually lead to the French government being unable to borrow at the rates it has been able to thus far.
Which everyone may be interested in learning will make it more difficult for the French state to support public services, and will likely require even more belt-tightening in future, which will undoubtedly lead to more governments falling and more protests.
But do the far-left and the far-right care? Of course not. In fact, it would make their political campaigns just that much easier.
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