Macron nominates Michel Barnier as Prime Minister
Macron nominates Michel Barnier as Prime Minister
After months of negotiations, consultations, and political tumult, Emmanuel Macron has finally nominated former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier as Prime Minister.
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After seven weeks of political uncertainty, President Macron has finally nominated a Prime Minister. This follows his contentious rejection of the left-bloc nominee, which strengthened his power at a cost. As the curtain rises on another government, the public asks themselves if the folly of recent times will continue.
On the 5th of September, it was announced that Michel Barnier, the EU’s Brexit negotiator, would become France’s Prime Minister. Barnier belongs to "Les Républicains", a liberal conservative party descended from the UMP, which itself descended from Charles de Gaulle’s RPR and Valéry Giscard d'Estaing’s UDF.
As highlighted in previous dispatches, it has run into a bit of a rough patch and is now one of the smallest parties in the National Assembly.
After hearing of the decision, the far-left leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, invoked an American tune when he declared that “Emmanuel Macron has stolen the election from the French People.”
It’s a tough defeat for them. The left bloc emerged as the biggest party on July 7th. But lacking an absolute majority, the President could and did reject their candidate. It’s no wonder they’re already backing a vote of no confidence against the new government. They’re sore.
Macron has kept his own party in power, but at a price. He has effectively granted veto power to the far-right. The centrist alliance backing Macron, bolstered by Barnier's modest group, still falls short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. As the left firmly rejects this government, his only remaining ally is Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN).
Though a far-right minister may not feature in the new government, Le Pen now holds a strong position from which to negotiate. She has the power to shut this entire party down if she wants. But for now, she’s vibing with the snacks.
About yesterday’s decision, Le Pen tweeted that “Michel Barnier seems to meet at least the first criterion we had requested, which is someone who is respectful of the different political forces and capable of addressing the [RN]…”
Barnier is known for building consensus, a reputation he earned by successfully negotiating the Brexit agreement for 27 countries. Even Hungary's Viktor Orbán praised him as "a good negotiator, inclusive, very close to us." He relied on this reputation in his unsuccessful bid for the French presidency in 2022.
Macron is counting on Barnier’s expertise, as negotiation will be vital for the survival of this newly-born government. Moreover, Barnier poses no threat to the major political blocs on the right and left. He comes from a weakened and fading party on the centre-right.
Curiously, many in the UK still expressed their bitterness about Barnier’s role in the Brexit aftermath. After the announcement, The Telegraph ran one headline: “Bringing back Barnier is proof that Macron loathes Britain.”
During the last presidential election, Barnier likened himself to the “Joe Biden for France”-- a comparison that correctly reflects his advanced age (73), and his long-lasting presence in public service: He became the youngest MP in the National Assembly in 1978, served as a Minister four times starting in 1993, and held the role as EU Commissioner twice.
He’s a fixture in French politics who leans right. His roots trace back to De Gaulle’s political campaigns when he was just 14. His dedication to traditional French conservatism has taken various shapes in recent years. In 2022, he pushed for a pause on non-EU immigration. Shaking his pro-European stance, he declared to followers that France should break free from the reins of the European Court of Justice and adjacent Court of Human Rights.
Born in the Savoie region, he gracefully descended into politics from the peaks of the Alps. In his office at the European Commission, he keeps a cherished memento: a photograph from 1986, captured right after he led his region's successful campaign to host the 1992 Winter Olympics. It sat beside other images of him with Pope John Paul II or Nelson Mandella.
He has long subscribed to a traditional form of environmentalism among the right. "When it interested nobody, Barnier wrote books to save the planet," remarked Pierre-Jérôme Hénin, a former presidential advisor. "Many snickered: ‘Michel, it's tweet-tweet with the little birds.’"
Macron’s choice is prudent. Without a clear majority, Barnier’s ability to form a consensus will be essential. The President’s manoeuvre may have protected his centrist bloc. Yet they have tied his fate to the far-right's uncertain support. The left has already planned protests for the weekend.
Barnier’s published diary, chronicling his experience in the Brexit negotiations, ominously opens with a line from King Lear: "Beat at this gate that let thy folly in/ And thy dear judgement out,”
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Hugh Vuillier is a political and economics writer based in London. He publishes the Europe Letter.
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For sure, Barnier is a canny move. France is more right-wing than socialist at the moment. A man from a small party to the right, pro-Europe unlike le Pen's Rassemblement Nationale party, should both please & displease the RN & their more ardent supporters. The left, despite their newly formed public face of unity in the NFP (Nouveau Front Populaire), remain divided & likely more so now. If the NFP don't like the idea of RN being king makers, then it's down to them to work with the centrist Ensemble, which they've ruled out until now.
Macron's PM choice may not survive, but should he do so, the French will get to 'try' the more right wing RN as they'll certainly be more visible over time. Such visibility may well be a gamble, but I see it as a way to coax the left into a more conciliatory mood and work with the centre.
Despite the RN gains this year, and Gilets Jaune & farmer protests, the French are more comfortable in the centre and engaging with the rest of Europe, than as a country that's going down the road of extremism.
Might the NFP leadership approach Ensemble now and try to form a working relationship with them? That would be the better outcome, removing the need for RN support altogether, which many French will be uncomfortable with.
If the NFP really don't like the new arrangement, then they should start talking to, and working with, Ensemble before the ship sails. That's assuming Ensemble members would prefer to veer to the left, that is. And if the left don't engage, they'll only keep blowing hot air for another two years, and maybe block an autoroute or two along the way - a sure fire way of ensuring more people get turned off by Melechon and the left.
France would really sit more comfortably with a left of centre socialist government, but it hasn't quite yet worked out how to respond to the tide of populism that's washed over Europe's shores. My feeling is that Macron has skilfully negotiated France through a turbulent period where the far-right have made huge gains, but not enough to take over the reins of power. Only now they are visible enough for the French to better decide, as everyone should have a much finer grasp of the politics, at a time when it will matter most - in 2027 when they go to the polls and choose their new president.
Many complained Macron's choice to nominate a notorious conservative like Barnier is a slap against the "Republican Front" wich kept MLP away from a majority. My guess instead he's taking as a fact 38% of French voters choose the RN and he want to cut ground out from their feet.