Emmanuel Macron has taken a lot of heat over the last 9 months, due to his various comments regarding the Ukraine war, the need to keep diplomatic options open, and most recently, on his statements regarding how France would react to a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine.

Despite having been very clear on the French position regarding Russia’s war during his strong geopolitical speech at the UN back in September, he continued to be on the receiving end of criticisms for his comments, and once again felt the need to clarify his positions.

Back on October 12th, during his interview on France 2, he had provoked worry in many French allies by giving the impression that France was only focused on its own security:

“Our doctrine is based on what are called the fundamental interests of the nation, and they are defined very clearly. This is not at all what would be in question if there was a nuclear ballistic attack in Ukraine or in the region.”

When you read it in a wider context, the goal of this statement is to reduce the available reasons for a Russian nuclear escalation, by removing the possibility of a French nuclear attack on Russian forces, therefore raising the bar for Putin and his team to take this decision.

However, to many, this comment was seen as a betrayal of what many believed to the necessary strategic ambiguity to combat Putin, and in some cases, even an abandonment of the Ukrainian people regardless of the support being given by the French state.

Announcing the new French National Strategic Review, Macron also had the opportunity to clarify some misconceptions of the French position regarding nuclear engagement.

So what did he say?

The main point of the speech was to clarify previous statements that had unnerved several of our European allies, primarily by assuring them that the French nuclear deterrent "contributed" to European security and wasn’t exclusively focused on defending France.

“Today more than yesterday, the vital interests of France have a European dimension. Our nuclear forces therefore contribute by their own existence to the security of France and Europe…Let us be careful not to forget that France has nuclear deterrence and let us sometimes be careful not to dramatize a few remarks.”

While not dissimilar to Macron’s statement from October 12, it does clarify for external actors what exactly France considers to be her fundamental interests, while also clearly underlining the French position of being at the core of European defence.

The statement also fits neatly into Macron’s crusade for stronger European sovereignty in defence matters, having pushed heavily for the completion of the EU Strategic Compass during the French Presidency of the EU, whilst also strengthening France’s post-Brexit position as a guarantor of the Atlantic alliance.

Macron praised the fact that France was able to be “respected for its status endowed with nuclear weapons, engine of European strategic autonomy, exemplary ally in the Euro-Atlantic area, a reliable and credible partner”. He also underlined the national goal of being “a power at the heart of European strategic autonomy, with strong Atlantic roots but at the forefront and at the pivot of the world”.

Information warfare

Emmanuel Macron also turned his view towards an increasingly problematic space within the geopolitical world: influence.

Macron made the announcement that “influence” would be considered a “strategic function” in the defence of France from now on, clearly looking to combat Russia and China’s growing clout in the world.

“We will not be patient spectators” he declared, speaking of the spread of disinformation and misinformation that is directly hostile towards the French state, also making it clear that “convincing [actors] is clearly part of the strategic requirements” to defend France, and that this would be supported with “substantial means”

"It is up to us to think about the promotion [of France] without pride, but without unwelcome inhibition…[France must learn to] detect without delay [the forms of hybrid war which are waged against it]…hinder them [and] on our turn, but in the manner of a democracy, anticipate them, use them to our advantage in numeric and physical fields” .

He was also clear about the need for France to push the initiative as well: “An attitude that would only be reactive, even defensive could pass for a form of passivity, it will not be ours”

Increased cooperation

With the recent fight between France and Germany, which you can read about here, or hear me talk about here, Emmanuel Macron is clearly keen to overcome the problems and move forward.

Calling to “strengthen ties with Germany” in terms of defence, he hoped for "decisive progress in the coming weeks" with our “indispensable partner”. He was also clear that “the balance of [the] partnership depends…in part on the success of the European project”, leaning back into the topic of EU strategic autonomy.

The review plans also involve planned discussions on French cooperation with African partners and how these will look in the future, particularly following a disastrous fallout with the Malian Junta following nine-years of work, and with the announcement that the anti-jihadist operation, Barkhane, will now come to an end.

“In the coming days, we will launch a phase of exchanges with our African partners, our allies and regional organizations to jointly develop the status, format and missions of the current French military bases in the Sahel and in West Africa. This strategy will be finalized within six months. It is essential and it is one of the consequences that we draw from what we have experienced in recent years throughout the Sahel region”

However, while Barkhane is now coming to an end, the French military presence in the Sahel remains unaffected. The c. 3,000 soldiers in Niger, Chad, and Burkina Faso will stay in place, continuing to fight jihadist groups with links to Al-Qaida and Daesh.

“Our interventions must be better limited in time. …We are not in fact intended to remain engaged without time limit in external operations…Our military support to African countries in the region will continue, but according to the new principles that we have defined with them. It will be available at the level of each country according to the needs that will be expressed by our partners.”

He also made it clear that France will continue to reinforce its partnership with London.

What does this all mean, though?

One of the important parts to note from this review is that France is banking heavily on its co-operations with allied states to reinforce its geopolitical presence.

Moving away from the drama of the failed Liz Truss premiership, a Franco-British summit will be organised in the first quarter of 2023, the first since Sandhurst in January of 2018. Once an annual affair, these were put aside for political reasons, as well as due to the difficulties related to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Aside from this, it’s been made clear that France intends to work closely with German on defence matters, taking advantage of Germany’s Zeitenwende to push Germany to be a more active and core part of what Macron hopes will be a stronger, more militarily independent European Union.

Another important part of the speech, with Macron effectively admitting he had “mis-spoken”, was his underlining how France would react should there be an attack on the European Union.

While he did not outright say it explicitly, it was implicit in his statement that France, should there be an attack on an EU or NATO partner, could react by utilising it’s nuclear “force de frappe”, putting to rest the idea that France would abandon its allies to a Russian nuclear attack.

When it comes to Africa, the impression that I get is that the President wants to sit back and analyse where things went wrong in Mali, politically, militarily, and diplomatically, and figure out how to avoid these.

By discussing with African partners, it will be easier for France to have a better understanding of what our allies’ needs are, how we can meet them, and how we can be better allies in a way that will reduce the ability of foreign actors, such as Russian PMC Wagner, to take advantage of insecurities, exploit them, and eject pro-European actors in favour of their own.

Ultimately, we’ll need to see in several months what shape the new French Security policy takes, but it sounds like the right ideas are being developed to reinforce French, European, and global security.

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