Polling update - 20/03/2024
Euronews released a series of new polls last night at a Brussels launch event, and the results are not great news for Emmanuel Macron, Valérie Hayer, or the rest of Europe (Unless you like Le Pen...)
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Right, let’s get into it: the Rassemblement National continues to look like they are going to come out far ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s liberal coalition, and the more polls we see, the more we see this lead being entrenched.
Coming first with 30.7% of vote intention, the Rassemblement National looks like it will increase its vote share by 7.7%, while Valérie Hayer’s Besoin d’Europe campaign looks like it will take a 3.9% hit.
Squeezed between the two parties, Les Républicains sits at 7.6%, dropping by 1.4% compared to 2019. They are struggling to maintain their identity in an increasingly crowded field, losing votes both to the far-right and to the centre-right parties within the presidential majority.
On the left, however, we’re seeing some pleasant surprises, with the centre-left Parti Socialiste / Place Publique list, led by Raphaël Glucksmann, who are currently sitting in third place with 12.2% of the voter intention, more than doubling their vote share from the calamitous post-2017 European Election campaign.
Further to the left, we see Europe Ecologie Les Verts with 8.1% of the vote, dropping 5.9% compared to 2019. This highlights a pretty harsh reaction to a mandate of green policymaking that has led to several major protests, such as the recent absurdly violent farmers’ protests across Europe.
Finally, everyone’s favourite far-left firebrand, La France Insoumise, is coming in dead last out of all the major parties and within the NUPES coalition. This showcases a big failing of the Jean-Luc Mélenchon school of bullying and psychological harassment. With 7% of the vote, they’re seeing a modest increase of 1% compared to 2019.
But how does this all look in terms of seats?
So, currently, it’s looking like the Rassemblement National will be in first place by a large margin, sitting at 28 seats (+5), a full 9 seats ahead of the Macronist Besoin d’Europe ticket who would have 17 (-6) if the election took place today.
In a distant third place, the Parti Socialiste / Place Publique ticket has 11 seats (+5), almost doubling its 2019 score. In fourth and fifth place, we find both Les Républicains (-1) and Europe Ecologie Les Verts (-6) with 7 seats, followed by La France Insoumise with 6 (=). Suddenly, Reconquete pops up out of nowhere with 5 seats in their first election.
“Surely this isn’t that bad,” I hear you say, my dear readers, but unfortunately, it is.
Somehow, I say, staring right into the camera, we’ve seen the far right increase their share of seats by 10. This means that out of 81 MEPs, the far right would have 40.75% of the elected officials representing France in Brussels if the election happened today.
If we compared what proportion of the total MEPs each party would receive, we get the following break-down of the influence that will be held:
Rassemblement National - 34.57%
Besoin d’Europe - 20.99%
Parti Socialiste / Place Publique - 13.58%
Les Republicains - 8.64%
Europe Ecologie Les Verts - 8.64%
La France Insoumise - 7.41%
Reconquete - 6.17%
In other words, the following ideologies will represent the following level of influence over the French position within the European Parliament:
Far-Right Euroscepticism - 40.74%
Big tent Liberalism - 20.99%
Socialism - 13.58%
Conservatism - 8.64%
Greens - 8.64%
Far-left Souverainism - 7.41%
Yeah, we have a problem.
Whether this is due to genuine belief in the party, genuine support for far-right ideology, or the fact that they are planning to engage in protest voting against the government, we won’t know until the election takes place. We’re able to actually ask these people why they voted for what they voted for.
However, with Presidential elections on the horizon in 2027, the Macronist camp has some serious problems on its hands. Support for the centrist coalition is waning, and the gambits to earn the support of right-wing voters have not necessarily panned out as it hoped they would.
However, as always, take these polls with a pile of salt, because everything can change closer to D-day (even in EP elections)
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