This polling update is built to ensure that you know what public opinion in France looks like, and to give you an idea of which politicians you should keep an eye on!

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We haven’t had one of these in a while! But I figured I’d give you a treat as we wrap up 2022 and head into a new year filled with excitement and joy (or at least, we can hope!)

Emmanuel Macron

French President Emmanuel Macron will be happy to be ending the year on a high note, at least, with his confidence levels being raised +2% to 46%, still below his high of 59% back in 2017 but still considerably higher than many former presidents who only managed to last for one single term.

It has been a tumultuous year for the two-term president, bolstered by a strong Presidential election result and yet constrained by tighter-than-expected legislative election results that have placed his party, Renaissance, in a difficult parliamentary situation.

Regardless, after a tough year where he has had to defend his position on Ukraine, energy, purchasing power and the military readiness of the state, Emmanuel Macron has been carried to a strong finish by the strong protections his government has put in place to protect purchasing powers, keeping bills down for this year, and above all else, a small push from the FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

The really interesting part of this poll is the improvement in confidence levels coming from almost all of the parties in France. With the exception of the Parti Socialiste (51%, -3%), the majority of militants across the political parties saw an increase in their confidence in the President.

However, the really interesting point of this poll is the change in the opposition numbers…

If you look at the above polling numbers, Emmanuel Macron has had a big boost in his numbers across the militants of the political parties, with the only loss being amongst those who support the Parti Socialiste (51%), where he dropped -3%.

Naturally, his figures are highest amongst those within the Ensemble coalition (93%), which saw an increase of +6% this month.

As a quick reminder, Ensemble, colloquially known as the Presidential coalition, is comprised of Renaissance, Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem, led by François Bayrou), Horizons (led by Edouard Philippe), En Commun (founded by Barbara Pompilli), and the Progressive Federation.

This increase was as high as the increase in confidence that the President saw amongst militants from Europe écologie les Verts (52%) where he saw a boost of +6%. Amongst the Rassemblement National supporters (27%), he saw an increase of +3%; amongst Les Républicains supporters (53%), he saw an increase of +2%.

However, the most surprising increase was amongst supporters of the party led by the far-left firebrand, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, La France Insoumise (37%). Despite an aggressive campaign to undermine the authority of the President and his party, and repeated censure motions, their confidence in Emmanuel Macron jumped by +7%.

And the rest of the government?

For her part, Elisabeth Borne has seen her confidence levels stay stable at 42% (+0), with no major change having occurred despite the tumultuous efforts to pass the 2023 and long-term budgets through the Assemblée National.

Amongst the government ministers, there were a few interesting points.

Firstly, the most popular member of the government is Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire (40%), who saw no change this month and is likely benefiting from the financial protection given by the government to protect citizen purchasing power.

Following him is the Minister Delegate for Public Accounts, Gabriel Attal (33%), who saw his numbers drop by -3%; Gérald Darmanin (33%), who saw his confidence drop by -1%, and; Olivier Véran (32%), who saw his confidence drop by 2%.

And the rest of the political sphere?

Currently, the most important point in December is that, aside from President Macron, the politician who has the most confidence amongst French politicians is Edouard Philippe (41%), the leader of Horizons and the man who many expect to succeed Macron himself.

However, he has dropped -2% since the last poll, and nobody knows if this will continue.

Following him is Marine Le Pen (35%), whose numbers have stayed stable in the last month, but who appears to continue to struggle to push forward and become a more popular politician acceptable to the wider French citizenry.

In third place is François Baroin (30%), the Les Républicains mayor of Troyes and long-term Chiracien. There’s always been a hypothesis that, despite his previous attempt to leave politics, he has the makings and the ambition to be a presidential candidate for LR, and there’s some truth in this.

Taking a more moderate stance, he very well could serve as a strong counterbalance to the more extreme, hard-right positions that recently elected President, Eric Ciotti, and his ally Laurent Wauquiez, have been enforcing on the party, and which has begun chasing the moderate LR officials away.

He’s on equal footing with another moderate from Les Républicains, Xavier Bertrand (30%), who was previously a candidate to lead the LR into the 2022 Presidential elections, but who fell short in the primaries. As a result of the ongoing presidency of the party, he may even be thinking of abandoning the party entirely.

However, interestingly, fifth place has gone to recently elected Rassemblement National president Jordan Bardella (29%), which goes to show that far-right politicians may be in the process of becoming even more normalised than many of us have feared.

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