🇫🇷Prisons and primaries
Les Républicains are arguing over a full right-wing primary, the polls behind this, and Gérald Darmanin promising an autonomous Saint-Martin tribunal and prison
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This week
➡️Les Républicains argue over a full right-wing primary
🧑⚖️Darmanin promises autonomous Saint-Martin tribunal and prison
➡️Les Républicains argue over a full right-wing primary
So, we have about a year and a half until the next Presidential elections, and many people have been preparing for this election for several years already, with politicians like Laurent Wauquiez having announced their presidential ambitions almost 3 years ago now.
Not only this, but we’ve seen several high-profile French politicians, from eternal candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) to Edouard Philippe (Horizons) to Bruno Retailleau (LR), all attempting to build up their reputations as either the ones to replace Emmanuel Macron’s hard work, or to do it better.
And while the left are currently playing will-they-won’t-they vis-a-vis their primary, and whether they’ll do a deal with the devil (Mélenchon) and allow the far-left to take over everything with their toxicity, Les Républicains are also figuring out what they need to do to survive.
With the Rassemblement National running riot in the polls and everybody trying to figure out what to do about it so they can have a chance, far-right candidate Eric Zemmour resurrected the idea of a full right-wing primary from Gérald Darmanin (Renaissance) to one of his MEPs (Sarah Knafo).
This led to Laurent Wauquiez, when pressed on this topic, to respond with a stingy “sure why not, chiche.”
He explained the reason for this when speaking on CNEWS on Tuesday 25 November and in this tweet:
“In 2027, the sole Republican candidate, if there are other right-wing candidates, will never win. My goal is to build a coalition of the right to promote a right-wing agenda: less immigration, lower taxes, less welfare.”
The problem: Bruno Retailleau, the president of Les Républicains, ran his presidential campaign by ruling out an open right-wing primary and is actively competing with Laurent Wauquiez to lead the presidency of the right-wing party.
Now, there’s one possible reason why Laurent Wauquiez would be happy to have this happen: that he knows he can’t win a primary anyway.
Bearing in mind that polls are mere snapshots, if you look at the two leaders of Les Républicains in the most recent Political confidence poll from October, you can see that Bruno Retailleau is about 11% ahead of Wauquiez in polls, with Wauquiez also sitting behind Xavier Bertrand.
Compounded with the collapse of his agreement with Eric Ciotti when the latter kicked everybody out of the HQ, leant out of the window to yell at people, and then was kicked out of the party for his far-right coalition attempt, Wauquiez is probably trying to push yet another competitor out of the way.
And may even be happy to see the whole party having to throw their weight behind one of the most far-right politicians France has, Marion Maréchal Le Pen, who happens to be allied with the infamous Steve Bannon.
All so he can try to pick up the pieces, and much like his German counterpart, Manfred Weber, never be elected to the leadership position he craves.
This idea also raises another question: would the centre-right candidates like Gérald Darmanin really return to a party that kicked him out? And would centrists really abandon the centre and the votes to be won on the left?
Bref.
What we can be sure of is that Les Républicains are planning to discuss this primary plan this coming Tuesday 9 December, which will tell us how serious this proposal could be, or whether Wauquiez will need to hold off on this project.
And we may even look at a potential polling snapshot of the parties this week to see if this plan would even make sense.
🧑⚖️Darmanin promises autonomous Saint-Martin tribunal and prison
Sticking with the big news of the week: French justice minister Gérald Darmanin confirmed the creation of a fully operational and autonomous court in Saint-Martin this past Saturday. This was accompanied by his announcement of a short-stay prison to be constructed within the next two years.
Darmanin announced the move as part of a wider effort to “strengthen local justice and better support detainees from the territory in their reintegration.” The autonomous tribunal is expected to be operational by next summer and is planned to be equipped with additional magistrates, clerks, and reintegration staff.
Darmanin also announced that an investigating judge would be appointed a few months later in September 2026, and that the services would also be available for neighbouring Saint-Barthélemy.
Darmanin stressed that establishing a fully fledged court must be paired with a stronger “prison policy that is currently lacking in Saint-Martin.” Around sixty residents of the territory are presently held in Guadeloupe, a situation that complicates family visits and hampers the reintegration of offenders.
He underlined that building a prison on the island is not only necessary to ease overcrowding in Guadeloupe’s facilities but also “a good service to render to the people of Saint-Martin, for their families.”
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