🇩🇪Polling update - Germany - December 2023
12 December 2023 - Let's have a look at the most recent polls coming out of Germany, and what this could mean.
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While the Christmas break has definitely started for this year, there was an important update that we just couldn’t ignore. Plus, I know how much you guys miss the classic polling updates!
We saw a very interesting, if worrisome, polling update coming out of Germany last week, which bears a quick look for all of you EU watchers out there:
Looking at the above map showing the recent 7/12/2023 EP election polling, you'll notice that it is almost completely dominated by the CDU-CSU (conservatives) in black and the AFD (far-right) in blue, with small spots of green in University towns.
You'll be asking yourself what happened to the members of the traffic light coalition, notably the SPD (socialists) and FDP (liberals), who appear to have suffered large losses, while Die Grünen have suffered limited damage.
The honest answer: despite being in government, the governing parties are suffering from anti-incumbent sentiment, damagingly high inflation, constant political discord, a challenging foreign policy position, and a lack of charismatic leadership.
All of this has combined to big losses in the polls for two of the three governing parties, with both struggling to compete in the public discourse and prove to the public that they are competent actors. This has seen the SPD dropping from 25.7% in the 2021 federal election to 10% (-15.7%) in this poll, and the FDP dropping from a score of 11.5% to 3% (-8.5%).
However, as always, polling is an indicator, not a crystal ball, and things can always change, however this is a worrisome addition to the ongoing far-right wave that we’re seeing, with the Rassemblement National moving from strength to strength in France.
Not only this, but we’ve also recently seen a strong showing in the voting booth from Geert Wilders and his Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom), and we’re not seeing a whole lot of answers from many actors aside from potential collaboration.
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