🇫🇷La rentrée politique: Socialists eye Matignon as Dati plots for Paris
Bayrou faces a confidence vote, the Parti Socialiste claims it is “ready to govern”, and Rachida Dati trades parliamentary ambition for a mayoral gamble with Barnier’s backing.
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This week
🌹Socialists stake claim to Matignon
🤝Dati trades 2nd for the mayoralty & Barnier’s support
La rentrée is here!
Firstly, welcome back from your summer holidays, which I hope were a lot more relaxing than for the French political class, the geopoliticians, and the editor of your favourite newsletter!
Before we get into the nitty gritty, today is the last day for the summer discount on paid subscriptions, so if you’d like to support
, head over to frenchdispatch.eu/summer2025.🌹Socialists stake claim to Matignon
So, if la rentrée wasn’t already incredibly eventful with Prime Minister François Bayrou’s decision to call a confidence vote he’s expected to lose, it’s looking like the Nouveau Front Populaire, the vehicle for Jean-Luc Mélenchon to control the left and become President, seems to be reaching its endof the road.
Now, we’ve covered the brewing conflict between Olivier Faure’s Parti Socialiste (PS) and Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI), and Faure’s attempts to make the PS the strongest left party like back in the day.
However, it appears that his party is going a step further at the PS summer university, announcing that the PS is “ready to govern”, that Macron should show “good faith” by appointing a left-wing Prime Minister, and that they have “demonstrated that [they are] the party of the solution" by proposing a detailed and quantified solution.
Naturally, there was no mention of La France Insoumise or Mélenchon in any of this.
“So, what is in this budget” I hear my dear readers asking, and how does it compare to Bayrou’s austerity budget, expected to make €44 billion in savings?
While we don’t have any specific details yet, what we do know is that the socialists have planned for a combination of making around €26.9 billion in new revenues, largely through taxing large fortunes via the “Zucman tax”, whilst also making around €14 billion in savings through cutting back other tax breaks.
But, the big question is: will any of this matter?
Sure, Bayrou is about to lose his job, sure, the Nouveau Front Populaire had the largest collection of deputies in the Assemblée Nationale, but do they have a majority and could they survive future ?
The left doesn’t have a majority, and even less so if La France Insoumise does what everybody expects it to, and throws a strop if it doesn’t get to pick a prime minister or destitute Emmanuel Macron.
But, to be entirely fair to everybody in this situation, there is absolutely no majority of any form that is durable in the long term, regardless of what anybody says.
As you can see, the Assemblée is split into three distinct groups, meaning there is no way for any kind of stable majority unless someone splits from their ideological group.
I also have no clue why the LIOT group is between the centrists and the far-right, but whatever, they’re not in the government.
There’s a more in-depth analysis of the ongoing kerfuffle that has resulted from Bayrou’s act of political suicide, so stay tuned for the news. And if you know anyone who is skilled with Python and knows how to code one of the above calculators, please get in touch!
🤝Dati trades 2nd for the mayoralty & Barnier’s support
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So, as many of you may remember, there was a little war brewing in the 2nd constituency of Paris, where after Michel Barnier (LR) announced that he would run for the seat in the Assemblée National, Culture Minister Rachida Dati (LR) immediately announced that she wanted to do so too.
Now, we covered the polling situation in that Weekly Dispatch, which showed that she was a favourite for that seat, and we also covered some of her motivations behind this.
However, the reality is that many politologues had a suspicion that she was attempting to force Les Republicains, who are looking for a position to place Michel Barnier, to support her candidacy for the Mayoralty of Paris in the municipal elections next year.
The reason for this is that, since Dati started trying to curry favour with Emmanuel Macron and his party, Renaissance, and took on a position aligned with the centrist government as their Culture Minister, the purists over at the LR have been itching to throw her over a cliff for betraying the values of the LR, particularly those who were more aligned with far-right Eric Ciotti.
And it seems that our suspicions were indeed correct, with an agreement having been reached between Les Républicains and Dati for her to pull out of the 2nd constituency race and to be invested as the Les Républicains candidate for Mayor of Paris, as she announced this past Thursday
“Tonight, the conquest of Paris has begun. I would like to thank @lesrepublicains for unanimously granting me their nomination. In Paris, I will work to bring together all the forces for change, and I call on all Parisians to join me.
Together, we will win!”
Les Republicains, from their side, announced that Dati would be their candidate for the mayoralty of Paris, that Barnier would not run for the Mayor of Paris, and that he would support her, a stipulation that was very likely demanded by Dati’s team.
Just as importantly, it’s made clear that this deal includes the stipulation that Dati will support Barnier in his own election campaign, and help him to get elected.
Aside from being a nice insight for the un-initiated into the Rachida Dati playbook, it’s interesting to see just how far Dati is willing to go to be in a position to finally win the Mayor of Paris race, having unsuccessfully run in 2014 and 2020.
However, an important factor is what everybody else will do from here on out. Several members of the LR are still considering a run themselves, with many demanding proof that Dati can succeed and unite the opposition.
Which will be a tall order, seeing how Horizons look like they may run their own candidate, and Macron’s Renaissance is attempting to figure out whether they’ll support Dati as previously discussed, or once again run their own candidate in Paris.
Dati is also not a sure-fire candidate in the first place, despite her polling popularity, with the Parti Socialiste having had a stranglehold on the mayoralty for over a decade now, and looking to continue that winning streak.
And as the candidates begin to announce, we’ll start to see what the polls have to say about every candidate’s support; but, as we always say, polls are only snapshots, and not crystal balls.
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Being articulate + very relatable is such a needed combo. It would be fantastic if yourself &/or Hugo decided to run for serious posts at some point.