The French Abroad have Voted!
The French Abroad have Voted!
Who were the winners and losers from the 1st round of the French Legislative Elections? And can the French diaspora give us any indications for the mainland?
On Sunday 5th June, the majority of French citizens living abroad were given the chance to vote for their candidate to represent them in the Assemblee National across 11 different districts that represent the French diaspora.
Not including the French overseas territories, 1.4 Million French citizens are registered as living outside of Metropolitan France, and there is a very important population that is represented by 11 elected MPs, alongside the countless elected officials that work alongside the consular service to support the French when they need it.
With this vote taking place a week before the legislative elections in Metropolitan France, there have been some very interesting developments that will have an impact on the politics of the motherland.
Manuel Valls Fails To Land His Parachute
Arguably the most high-profile candidate in the overseas constituencies, Manuel Valls will be the most high-profile casualty within these early votes, and has put himself into a position that will be incredibly difficult to come back from.
Having tried for a long time to force himself into La République en Marche / Renaissance, and having spent a long time lobbying for a position of some kind, he was given the gift of being allowed to run within the 5th distirict for the French abroad to the detriment of incumbent Stéphane Vojetta.
Having not been told of this decision, and having learned about it through Twitter of all places, he and many of the party militants reacted with disbelief at the decision, and a sizeable chunk of the base got together to construct a strong dissident campaign for Vojetta, which appears to have paid dividends.
While Valls did everything he could to push through and overtake the incumbent, he unfortunately wasn’t able to overcome his unpopularity and very quickly fell behind, with polls having shown him earning significantly less votes for Vojetta, and he has been knocked out of the running.
Naturally, he took this result with dignity and serenity:
“While dissidence and division have caused confusion, I cannot ignore my score and the fact that my candidacy did not convince [the french citizens] … it is up to me to lucidly draw the consequences”
However, the story takes a sadder turn, as following this, Valls posted the above tweet, and then immediately deleted his Twitter account, having apparently decided to step away from the public eye for at least the short term.
While many would expect this to be the end of the former Prime Minister’s career, I wouldn’t count him out just yet, and there’s every chance he may find himself with some form of nice position following his efforts in this election.
Vojetta’s Pushing His Way Back Into the Majority
Having initially been excluded from the party for running a dissident campaign against Manuel Valls, Stéphane Vojetta’s strong showing in the first round has apparently put him back in his good graces, following what h
With thanks that should absolutely go to the party militants who decided to go rogue with him and support his candidature, he has managed to perform so well that the Ensemble! coalition is now supporting his candidature.
“Obviously, as we are in a second round against the Mélenchonist alliance, we need to rally. And this rallying will be behind Stéphane Vojetta, I am convinced that he will be able to win" said Stanislas Guerini, Secretary General of Renaissance.
He added that “He is a deputy who did not have the nomination of the party, but of course we will support him”
Vojetta, for his part, took this well:
“I welcome this necessary clarification from my political family. The initial error now being repaired, I gladly accept the proposed support, for a necessary rallying before the second round. The time will come to talk about the conditions of my return to the majority.”
Whether he joins the Renaissance again or not is still in question, however, as his conditions may be too much for the party to accept. Vojetta may also decide to sit as an independent who is attached to the party, which would allow him more freedom in the long run.
Regardless, Vojetta has done an excellent job under some very difficult circumstances, and for this, he deserves our admiration.
The Presidential Majority Comes out Swinging
Internal dramas and casualties aside, there is plenty of good news for the presidential majority, who look like they’re in prime position to take advantage of the strong performance across the world.
With the technicality of the 5th district aside, Ensemble! have qualified for every single 2nd round election for the French diaspora, and will come head-to-head with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s NUPES coalition in 10 out of the 11 seats, and otherwise fighting against the right wing Le Republicains - UDI coalition in the 8th district where the candidate came second.
A special mention should be given to the candidate for the 4th district (Benelux), Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade, who managed to win the highest score out of all of the elections in a highly contested seat, coming first against the NUPES candidate and setting himself up for a positive run at reelection in just a handful of weeks.
What happens next however is anyone’s guess. NUPES will now need to find a way to convince French citizens to vote for them despite fighting to undermine Rule of Law across the European Union by disobeying European law just like eurosceptic despots such as Viktor Orban, and fighting to endanger French security by removing our country from NATO at all costs.
On the other hand, Renaissance will need to work hard to convince the French citizens that the reputation they’ve been given by the opposition is categorically untrue, that they are working in the best interests of the citizenry, and that they will be the best placed to represent their people across the borders of the world.
What Could This Mean for Metropolitan France?
While it’s difficult to draw predictions for the upcoming 1st round in the motherland, there are several assumptions that can be drawn from the results we’ve seen.
Currently, as per the media representation (which appears to have overwhelming favoured the NUPES coalition in certain spaces), the two to watch will be Ensemble! And NUPES, who are expected to be the first and second place finished at the end of this election process.
Parties such as Reconquête, the Rassemblement National, and various other independents like the animalistic party (yes, we have those too), are unlikely to find much success in general, aside from in strongholds where they already have a sitting MP.
In fact, there’s some evidence that the far-right have damaged not only each other’s chances through engaging in an extremist civil war, but that they have also hamstrung the Républicains candidates, such as in the Benelux where the conservative candidate found herself being drowned out in a recent debate by the Reconquête candidate, and found herself being co-opted for their argumentative gain.
In seats where there the lean towards progressive politics is less pronounced or the population leans more conservative, things can also be expected to get more interesting for Les Républicains and the far-right, as they will be able to play more towards the values of traditional France, calling to the history of the country and the historic position they hold.
Of note on the left in many seats, NUPES candidate have been forced to row back on many of Mélenchon’s promises, and have even outright lied about what is contained within the programme, either claiming that there’s no plan to disobey European laws, or deflecting and blaming others for this inclusion.
What this could mean, short-term, is that there could be general confusion within the population, leading either to a boost to the vote of certain candidates who can escape from the shadow of their coalition leader, or potentially to a loss of their vote share should this come across as disingenuous to the population.
Alongside this, long-term, this indicates that there are genuine fractured within the NUPES coalition, and that the coalition could last for much less time than many of us assume, and that this could further cripple Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s single-minded goal of becoming Prime Minister, and recovering from his Presidential electoral loss.
Thank you for reading the French Dispatch! If you liked what you read please don’t hesitate to subscribe by putting your email below:
And if you’d like to contribute a coffee or two to help fuel my coverage of the wild world of politics, feel free to click on the picture below:
