The Weekly Dispatch - 03 April 2022
The Weekly Dispatch - 03 April 2022
One week away from the first round, polls begin to solidify, Le Pen flirts with Putin, Mélenchon flirts with Le Pen, and a crisis is constructed around McKinsey.
The Weekly Dispatch is your weekly summary of the major events taking place in French politics, published on Sundays in order to give you the perfect way to catch up with French news and events.
Polling Update
Merely one week away from the first round of the 2022 French Presidential Election, the figures are beginning to solidify in polling and we’re starting to get a relatively good idea of who will or will not be getting through to the second round of the election.
Emmanuel Macron continues to stand at the top of the pack, staying at 28% (+/- 0), and if polling is born out at the voting bureaus, he is likely to go through to the second round with a relatively comfortable margin. Marine Le Pen, currently sitting with relative comfort in second place at 21% (+1%). Meanwhile, Jean-Luc Mélenchon continues his slow and steady climb in the polls, reaching a campaign high of 15.5% (+1.5%). Whether he’ll manage to capitalise on the weakness of the other left-wing parties, or arrange some kind of left-bloc vote to beat Marine Le Pen, is another question entirely, however.
In the second round, things are getting ever so slightly tighter in terms of the margin of victory that polls are giving Emmanuel Macron for the 24th of April.
Should Macron (54%) find himself against Le Pen (46%) in the second round, he’s still expected to win, but the far-right challenger has added 1% to her polling numbers, likely due to the current scandals that you are going to read about below!
Should Macron find himself facing Jean-Luc Mélenchon (42%) in the second round, his margin for victory is higher, but has still been shortened by recent events. With Mélenchon having gained 4% in these polls, many are beginning to ask themselves about what exactly may happen between the two election rounds?
Le Pen calls for Post-war alliance with Putin
In a not out of the ordinary statement from the far-Right leader, Marine Let Pen recently made a very odd statement considering the fact that she has been actively trying to hide her connection with Russian President Putin following the start of his bloody invasion of Ukraine.
Calling for a potential alliance against Islamic fundamentalism “if it becomes more brutal” and if the war in Ukraine ends, she also stated that Russia “isn't going to move away”, her calls are not too dissimilar to the announcements of other candidates who have accepted that, to a certain extent, we will have to work with Russia at some point in the future.
Naturally, the problem is that this was made mere hours after we came to learn that the Russian army rounded up all military age men between 18-60, tied their arms behind their heads, and committed mass executions that have shocked a world already reeling from shock, and which showcased a horrific disregard for human life that has increased calls for further sanctions and more military support for Ukraine.
The McKinsey crisis
As the first-round approaches, Macron has found himself being the subject of an alleged scandal, with electoral opponents focusing on a report written by the French Senate which revealed earlier this month that public spending on management consultants more than doubled from 2018 to 2021, climbing from €379 million in 2018 to almost €893 million in 2021.
One of the major topics that keeps being raised by opposition is that one of the major recipient of this spending, McKinsey, paid no corporation tax in France over the past decade, an allegation the US firm denies but which has made things tricky for the incumbent.
One of the key things that have been missed are the actual uses of these consulting firms, which in one case were used to help the French effort to roll out COVID-19 vaccinations, focusing on advice to “define the logistical framework” and to establish “logistical benchmarking with other countries”, as well as “supporting the operation coordination of the task force.
Macron, for his part, outright stated that he was “shocked” by what had come out with this report, and that he wanted “all multinationals to pay taxes where [they] work”, which has been one of the major fights of his at the European level when he has been fighting for the GAFA taxes. The minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, himself said that McKinsey “would pay what it owed to taxpayers and to the French state”.
Is this a real abuse by the French government under Emmanuel Macron? Honestly, the positions vary wildly. Some have argued that problem with these consultants being used is that the French state should rely on the civil servants that make up much of the French governing apparatus, while others argue that there are too many blind spots within the civil service when it comes to newer challenges that they’ve not necessarily had the chance to be trained in or experience.
The other side of the argument is that the flexibility of consultants allow civil servants to focus on their tasks when it comes to governing, whilst allowing the government to have a set of mobile consultants who can pivot faster where necessary.
However, the reality of the situation is that nothing illegal was committed, and the reality of governance world wide is that the use of consultants is becoming more and more habitual. The question, really, is whether the price of the service matches the service being provided, and this is where there may be a need for us to have a genuine discussion within France
Ultimately, the “scandal” gave a lifeline to the opposition forces that were looking for a way to attack the incumbent candidate, and has given them a way of insinuating improper governance, muddying the waters, and allowing them to make claims that they can do much better, and behave with a much higher level of political morality in the name of the French republic.
Mélenchon flirts with Le Pen
Jean-Luc Mélenchon recently announced via Telegram that he would consult his c.310,000 candidacy supporters regarding what should be done with regarding to a second round duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.
In 2017 he had made a similar consultation to figure out what to do when he had missed out on a place in the run-off, where the results ended up being a blank or spoilt vote winning with 36% of the vote, narrowly ahead of supporting Emmanuel Macron which had 35% of the vote.
But would this play out in the current election? If we take into account the aggressive opposition that was shown to Emmanuel Macron by La France Insoumise, particularly with regards to the Gilets jaunes movement, the COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccination strategies, and even with regards to his
There have even been lively debates where political experts have been asking whether Mélenchon and Le Pen would be able to put together an anti-Macron front to get him out of the Elysee, but would the far-left really support the far-right?
Unfortunately, nobody can know for now whether the left would view Macron as the bigger threat than a far-right that Mélenchon said had “contempt for race”, or if this is a ploy to force the left to unify around Mélenchon and get him elected. However, this could be opening up a bigger fight
“Don't pretend that at ten days from the 2nd round [that the result] is already planned. Voting for the far right is not an option for us…those who have their backs full [have to] drive out the far right from the 1st round” - Adrien Quatennens, national coordinator for La France Insoumise
With Quatennens being one of Mélenchon’s potential successors, along with others such as François Ruffin, it’s interesting that he went onto live television to potentially undermine a potential alliance with the far-right to force out the incumbent, but La France Insoumise has had some trouble in the past with confused messaging, even in its upper echelons.