The Weekly Dispatch - 1 May 2022
The Weekly Dispatch - 1 May 2022
The future of The French Dispatch, a (smaller) polling update, the left continues its struggles, and Francois Hollande gets mad.
The Weekly Dispatch is your weekly summary of the major events taking place in French politics, published on Sundays in order to give you the perfect way to catch up with French news and events.
If you have any stories that you think should be included, feel free to contact me directly
The Future of The French Dispatch
I wanted to firstly say thank you to all of you who have been reading and supporting the newsletter by sharing it with your friends and encouraging people to read this, sending in feedback, and in general telling me about how much you’ve been enjoying reading this newsletter on a regular basis.
From my side, it’s been incredibly fun to contribute to discussions and education with this newsletter, but I’d now like to hear from you about what you have enjoyed or not enjoyed about this newsletter, what you’d like to see in future, and how the French Dispatch can continue to develop in the months following the end of the 2022 Campaign season.
It is a short, five minute long questionnaire, and I would be very grateful to receive any feedback that you can give!
Polling Update
Currently, we’re waiting for more polls for the Legislative Elections to be published, however, there has been one interesting
A very interesting poll that was published by BVA over the last few days looked into what French people would most like to see from future developments regarding the political landscape, in particular, who they would like to see becoming more influential.
Interestingly, if perhaps expected with the first-round results , 40% of the country would like to see Jean-Luc Mélenchon having more influence in French politics, which is understandable as he now controls what is effectively the third-largest party in the country.
Additionally, following up her loss in the second-round of the presidential election, 37% of the citizens polled showed support for Marine Le Pen having more influence over French politics. While her success in the rounds may make her seem influential, it has to be added that her position as the primary opposition to Emmanuel Macron is not a given, and she found herself largely overshadowed by the Gilets Jaunes protests, as well as being hidden during the COVID-19 Pandemic, where she stepped forward on only rare occasions to decry lockdown measures.
The Left Continues Its Struggles
Hot off the heels of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s strong performance in the first round of the Presidential elections, La France Insoumise wasted no time in launching their legislative elections, with Mélenchon having stated on results night that “the third round had begun”.
With the Parti Socialiste having suffered a cripplingly bad result in the elections, falling below the levels required to be reimbursed for a certain portion of their campaign costs, and Europe Ecologie les Verts having suffered the same fate, the left currently finds itself in financial disarray and vulnerable to the growing strength and influence of Mélenchon.
Mélenchon launched his campaign with a call for unity on the left, attempting to position himself as the lead candidate ahead of the polls by calling for the French to elect him as the Prime Minister to place him in the position of primary opposition to now re-elected president Emmanuel Macron, and in doing so he already imposed conditions on any alliance of the left.
With the once mighty Socialists effectively forced into a take-it-or-leave-it gamble of supporting the far-left leader, we’re witnessing a schism within the party between those who support an alliance with Mélenchon, and those who believe that the PS must stand on its own too feet.
One of the primary complaints of the PS is that they have not been given assurances that they wouldn’t be subjected to the “hegemony” of the LFI, and that despite the fact that the PS are now willing to put into question topics such as the European Union and NATO, they need more to be pulled into a coalition that may be necessary if the party is to survive.
Which is where we come to…
Francois Holland Gets Mad
With these discussions ongoing, one politician in particular has taken umbrage to the idea that the PS would get in line behind La France Insoumise, and not entirely because of his own ambitions of rebuilding and relaunching his once monolithic party.
"Would that mean that the next government would have to question the European treaties? To leave NATO? To no longer help the Ukrainians?" He asked flabbergasted while speaking live on FranceInfo.
While Hollande wanting to take the reins back is an open secret at this point, the potential of competing with a candidate from La France Insoumise will undoubtedly cause genuine concern, and may force him into what he evidently believes to be an unholy alliance.
It should be noted that Hollande now finds himself actively fighting against positions that would put into question decades of work that includes his own presidency, where he once was the leader of the left-wing bloc that also included Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is now putting into question decades of work that includes his own presidency where he fought to control the ongoing Eurozone crisis.
With the ongoing the main question is: would Hollande allow his party to play second fiddle, and effectively be subjugated to the whims of a former subordinate, even if it was the only way for him to ensure that he is re-elected and able to begin his reconstruction of his party? Only time will tell.