The Weekly Dispatch is your weekly summary of the major events taking place in French politics, published on Sundays in order to give you the perfect way to catch up with French news and events.

Polling Update

A new week means a new poll!

Incumbent non-candidate Emmanuel Macron has maintained his popularity at 25%, dropping by 0.5% compared to last week, while Marine Le Pen (15%) has dropped 1% to fall closer to Valérie Pécresse (15%) who has remained stable. The big surprise, however, is Eric Zemmour (16.5%) having jumped up in the polls by 1.5% in the last week, bringing himself up to second place and jumping over both Le Pen and Pécresse

It’s important to point out that Zemmour has managed to gain 4.5% in the last month, undoubtedly helped by the several defections to his party Reconquête, as well as the increased presence that he has had on social media and the lessened scrutiny that he’s been subjected to as he fell down in the polls to a position that was seen as irrelevant

On the left, there have been some small movements, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon staying stable at 10.5%, while Yannick Jadot has gained 0.5% to climb to 5.5%. Christian Taubira has stayed stable at 2.5%, while Anne Hidalgo has seen her polling numbers crumble further to 2%, even lower than the poor result that the Socialist Party suffered in 2017. Fabien Roussel, however, appears to be having a good time, having added an additional percentage point to climb to 4%, pulling ahead of both of the leading actors within the socialist family.

Whether the results across both the left and the right wing is the sign of French politics being driven more by the extremes has yet to be seen, as polls are not necessarily a fool-proof indicator of who will get what votes during the elections itself. However, we’re seeing a good indication that the more extreme parties appear to be pulling ahead of the more moderate parties.

Valérie Pécresse is having a terrible time

With her campaign sliding downhill with alarming speed, it seems that Valérie Pécresse just can’t catch a break.

After a shockingly lacklustre and stilted speech to a packed out Zenith that was described as the “titanic”, and which showcased a problematic lack of charisma for the person who claimed that they were part-Thatcher, part-Merkel, she found herself getting into additional trouble with the préfet of Ile-de-France.

The Républicain presidential candidate found two of the emblematic decisions as president of the region under attack and demands to be rescinded. The decisions, which fall under the title of “security shield”, which offered subsidies to municipalities that wanted to install video surveillance systems, or equip their police forces with weapons, body armour, body cameras, vehicles, and other pieces of equipment. The regional security brigades that she created were also called into question.

The main reason for this, as the préfet outlines in a letter, is that the region’s mission is to “contribute to the economic social and cultural development of the region” and not to provide “subsidies to municipal police”.

However, while this does pose several major issues, this could also play in Pécresse’s favour.

Having campaigned as the security candidate of the French people, who will do more to protect the French than Macron has, this can provide an opportunity to fight against an establishment trying to stop her from protecting the inhabitants of Ile-de-France.

Whether this will be enough to bring her ahead of Zemmour and Le Pen, however, is another story entirely.

Another day, another defection for Le Pen

Pécresse isn’t the only person with problems, however, and Marine Le Pen continues to lose her supporters within the party.

This time, however, it was Nicolas Bay, a high-ranking lieutenant, spokesperson, and member of the Rassemblement National for 30 years, who broke ranks and joined Eric Zemmour’s burgeoning campaign.

Once again, the RN found themselves on the defensive as Zemmour found himself profiting from the weakness of the traditional party of far-right voters.

One major problem for Le Pen & co., however, is that Bay had access to key, high-level information related to their presidential campaign, and probably related to the planning for the upcoming legislative elections that will follow the presidential campaign.

"We have had confirmation that Nicolas Bay, taking advantage of his presence in the highest instances of the campaign, has been transmitting strategic and confidential elements to our direct competitor Éric Zemmour for months" Marine Le Pen highlighted in a statement, calling his behaviour to be “high treason”

Taubira abandoned to struggle alone

In a move that was as surprising as it was brutal, the victor of the Popular Primary, the exercise to find a unity candidate for the left, appears to have been abandoned completely by her colleagues across the left-wing.

Even the Radical Party of the left, who were one of the most active in their support for the primary and the need to support the eventual victor, found themselves backpaddling in their support for the Taubira campaign.

“Our party cannot be the only person responsible or accountable for the continuation of this campaign” Said the President of the party, Guillaume Lacroix, continuing on by saying that it was ”correct and in good conscience that a certain number will not give their signature to Christiane Taubira.”.

Why did this happen? Particularly as she’s polling at around the same numbers as the majority of the left-wing parties?

One theory that has been doing the rounds in French circles, is that this could be a newfound attempt for the Socialist Party to rally support around Anne Hidalgo, but if this were indeed the case, then the reality is that this wasn’t necessarily the best strategy, looking the lacklustre polling numbers of all of the left-wing candidates who are running a fractured and self-destructive campaign.

France Protects it’s whistleblowers

The real good news, however, is a new law that was voted in in the French Parliament focused on better protecting and supporting whistleblowers.

The main goal, and the success of this bill, is that it defines their status, outlines the procedures for whistleblowing, strengthens their rights and protections, as well as those of the people or associations that work with or help them them, as well as facilitating the proper financial and psychological support for these whistleblowers.