The Weekly Dispatch - 22 May 2022
The Weekly Dispatch - 22 May 2022
A big polling update, profiles of the entire new French Government (including Elizabeth Borne), the Socialists go into a full-blown civil war, and Francois Hollande abandons his political Renaissance.
The Weekly Dispatch is your weekly summary of the major events taking place in French politics, published on Sundays in order to give you the perfect way to catch up with French news and events.
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Polling Update
We have lots of polling to go through today, with our first port of call being the national polling of support for parties and coalition.
Currently, the coalition with the most support in France is NUPES (29%), the coalition of La France Insoumise, the Europe Ecologie Les Verts, the Parti Communiste de France, and the Parti Socialiste. Following shortly behind them is Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble! (26%) Coalition, made up of Renaissance, Horizons, and MODEM, who are currently polling slightly under where Macron was in the first round of the presidential elections.
Behind both of the national front-runners is Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (23%), who are running challenger campaigns across most of France, with their target currently being to reach the threshold required to create a group within the Assemblee National. Les Republicans are polling at 10% and likely to suffer some heavy losses in the first round of the elections, while Reconquete! (5%) is currently doing everything that it can to try to elect Eric Zemmour.
However, this isn’t the full story, as these are a national project that ignores local dynamics.
If we look at the seat projection that was created by Harris Interactive, based on a breakdown of the national results, local polling results, as well as a calculation of the first-round and likely-second round voting patterns.
Currently, it looks like Ensemble!, the presidential majority, will have an absolute majority in the Assemblee National, sitting at a projected 300-350 seats which would bring them to the same level of political control they won back in 2017. NUPES, the coalition of the left, are likely to end up with between 108-172 deputies, a large increase compared to 2017, while the Rassemblement National are looking at 48-75 deputies, a huge increase when you think about the existence of the cordon sanitaire.
However, what we must bear in mind is that they are benefiting heavily from the collapse of the vote for Les Republicains, who are expected to win between 35-55 seats, as well as the fact that Reconquete, expected to win 0-2 seats, have attracted their most extreme characters, and helped Marine Le Pen’s dédiabolisation of her party.
And one final poll to round off your week!
When polling French citizens about who the leading opposition party to take on Macron is, the result is clearly leaning in Jean-Luc Melenchon’s favour, with LFI the leader for around 38% of French citizens, with Marine Le Pen coming in at around 30%.
Both are far ahead of the other parties, with Zemmour’s party Reconquete sitting at 10%, the Socialists sitting at 8% along with their old rivals, Les Republicains, and Europe Ecologie les Verts are sitting at 6%.
We have a new government!
Good news, everyone! France has a new government!
Announced late in the week after the French President had kept us in suspense for what was the longest post-election period in the history of the 5th republic, we finally know who our Prime Minister is, as well as what the composition of the government will be for the short term.
If you want to read a summary of who our new Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne is, you can read it here:
And for a profile of those who have been promoted, demoted, moved, or recruited to the French government, you can find that here:
Happy reading!
The Socialists Fall into a Civil War
With the reports of all of the disagreements within the socialists regarding the NUPES coalition, things are intensifying across the board and we’re seeing open political warfare erupting across France, with Socialists actively backing dissident candidates who are campaigning against those selected by Melenchon’s NUPES.
“The PS lost its soul for a plate of lentils”, “Can we ally with the “Insoumise”, anti-Semites, non-Republicans? “
The hostility has increased in tone recently, with many openly stating that their party has been dishonoured in its submission to a political actor like Melenchon, and we’ve seen evidence that many have started their own federations to actively fight against the NUPES Coalition and, as one person put it to me, “rescue their dignity”.
Loïg Chesnais-Girard, the president of the Brittany region, summed up mentalities well after a long virtual meeting over zoom:
“I don't see how NUPES can survive the European elections in two years. There, everything will explode. There was a lot of talk about LFI, but also about Olivier Faure: “Let Olivier Faure insult us, let him tell us to leave. It's shocking "
While this has been motivating many to fight against the attempted control over their party by an outsider, the reality is that we won’t know the result of this counter-movement until the first round of the elections, and secondly, we won’t know the result this will have on the fortunes of the socialists until the next national congress takes place.
Hollande Abandons his Political Renaissance
As some of you long-time readers may remember, a few months back, former French President Francois Hollande was planning his comeback, aiming to not only be re-elected as an MP, but to stage a takeover of the socialist party and to reinvigorate the party and reforge it into a national contender for the next presidential elections in 2027.
“I engaged in the mandate of deputy of Corrèze for more than 20 years before becoming president of the Republic so I had no vocation to return there, except in exceptional circumstances”
Unfortunately, this no longer seems possible, and the reason for this was scathing for the Socialist leadership, and he outlined what the exceptional circumstances were:
"If after the Socialist Party had decided to rebuild itself after the presidential election call for a resurgence at the time of the legislative elections with personalities who had exercised power. It decided not to rebuild itself but to merge into an unbalanced agreement electorally and not programmatically credible"
There have also been claims by former Prime Minister Manuel Valls that Hollande is unwell, and not handling the situation very well, but as you will all learn to do over your time with The French Dispatch, we can all safely take what Valls says with a pitcher of salt.
Ultimately, we cannot count out the former Prime Minister, as we don’t know what the NUPES coalition will do to the socialist party, its militants, or its leadership, but for now, don’t expect a comeback from the former president.
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