The Weekly Dispatch - 27 March 2022
The Weekly Dispatch - 27 March 2022
Melenchon ascendant in the polls, just not against Macron (yet), Jadot fights the law (which may win), parties begin to skip to the legislative elections, and Holland hopes to reconstruct the left.
The Weekly Dispatch is your weekly summary of the major events taking place in French politics, published on Sundays in order to give you the perfect way to catch up with French news and events.
Polling Update
There have been more big moves in the polling numbers two weeks ahead of the first round of the Presidential Election.
Emmanuel Macron has seen a slight drop in his support to 28% (-1%) compared to last week, while Marine Le Pen has seen her support jump up to 20% (+2.5%). With his level of support slowly increasing, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is literally coming out of left field and reaching 14% (+0.5%).
Valérie Pécresse has managed to stabilise her polling numbers at 11% (+/- 0%), while Eric Zemmour has found himself falling yet again, dropping to 12% (-1%) in this most recent poll. Yannick Jadot has maintained his position at 5% (+/- 0%) while Fabien Roussel has slid slightly in the polls, dropping to 3.5% (-0.5%).
As the voting date approaches, you can expect these numbers to further solidify, bar any last-minute scares such a-la Penelope gate, and it is becoming more and more likely that the second round of the Election will be between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and the eternal challenger, Marine Le Pen.
But how would the leading candidates fare if they reached the second round?
As it currently stands, and if these polling numbers were borne out in any hypothetical second round match-up, then it doesn’t look for any of the opposition candidates who could face Emmanuel Macron.
Marine Le Pen would, unsurprisingly, fare the best with 45% of the vote. The combination of her established political brand, combined with her ability to avoid any serious gaffes, as well as the effect of her more extreme supporters deserting her campaign to join Eric Zemmour’s, is also enabling her to greatly improve her 2017 score in these current numbers.
The next best performing candidate in this poll is far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 38%, who until recently was not being considered as a serious candidate for the second round, followed by Valérie Pécresse who would only receive around 36.5% of the vote against Macron. Meanwhile, in this poll, Eric Zemmour would come in last with 35% of the vote.
Yannick Jadot to be sued by TotalEnergies
One of our candidates has not been having the best of time recently, having embroiled himself in a fight that he may not be able to win, and which will just add to his increasingly long list of problems.
Total, having been heavily criticised by French and international society as one of the many companies continuing to actively work and trade with Russia despite their invasion of Ukraine, has been a frequent target of Ecologist candidate Yannick Jadot’s aggressive criticisms.
The green candidate, looking for a way to strengthen his electoral fortunes following a near-constantly weak performance across polls, repeatedly accused TotalEnergies of being “complicit” in the “war crimes” that are being committed in Ukraine by Russian forces due to their continued business ties.
The President of the French group, understandly, was very unhappy about these comments, and went on to RTL to respond to these.
“When Mr. Jadot accuses the 100,000 employees of Total, it is extremely serious, it is an insult”. “Mr. Jadot spends his time speaking ill of my company. What I observe is that it lowers him in the polls; he had better take care of his campaign and stop insulting us”
Naturally, Jadot wasn’t happy to take these criticisms himself, and decided to continue lashing out at the company, even going as far as to call-out the Total Energies president to participate in a debate on this topic, which wouldn’t necessarily be the vote winner that he appears to believe that this would be.
“Total Energies , supported by Emmanuel Macron, makes some concessions but maintains most of its activities in Russia, in full knowledge of the war crimes that they contribute to finance. Yes it is to be an accomplice! I call Patrick Pouyanné , CEO of Total, to debate with me”
The groups president, understandably, became even more unhappy following these comments:
"To be an 'accomplice in war crimes' is to provide direct assistance to a State or to a criminal organization that is the perpetrator of the crimes…Your remarks are particularly serious and unfounded against our company, which does not operate any oil or gas fields in Russia.”
Naturally, things have taken a turn for the worst, and the ecologist is now being targeted with a diffamation lawsuit which he claims is purely being used to shut his mouth during an electoral period, as opposed to being the result of his personal behaviour.
The Legislative Election Cometh
With many commentators, pollsters, citizens and politicos appearing to have conceded that incumbent candidate Emmanuel Macron will win in both the first and second rounds of the presidential elections, it appears that many have moved their attentions from the ongoing election to the upcoming legislative elections.
In France, it’s not unheard of to have a President without a majority in parliament. Jacques Chirac famously had one following a surprise dissolution of the Assemblée national and a victory of the left-wing coalition, being forced to work with Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, and this situation gives a glimmer of hope for the opposition parties who have been demoralised by the polling of their candidates.
However, several parties are in a very problematic position that may prevent them from finding success in this situation, even with the problems that La République en Marche have suffered with public opinion.
Firstly, the Socialists have to find a way to revamp their image and reconstruct their party in its entirety, as well as to figure out what heavy hitters they have within their party. Gone are the Jospins of old, replaced with incumbents that are incapable of running for reelection, and candidates who are only able to rally a predicted 3% of support.
With Francois Hollande appearing to be making a play to restart his political career, looking for an apparently election bid in his old stomping grounds as an MP, things become even more problematic for the Socialists. But, the reality is that the party has run out of heavy hitters that can carry the flag, with both Anne Hidalgo and Christiane Taubira having effectively been sacrificed to the electoral monster while Melenchon continues to be ascendant.
Les Républicains, likewise, have also find themselves in a precarious position. Torn between the extremes of the party and the moderates who are struggling to make their voices heard and are finding themselves dragged into uncomfortable positions by actors such as Eric Ciotti, they may find themselves with fault lines that are irreconcilable.
Could Rachida Dati be the next flag bearer of the party? With a platform that attempt to combine the moderate positions of les Républicains with the more extreme tendanciels on immigration during the recent Paris mayoral election, she may be the best placed to take the wheel of the increasingly small car.
Europe Écologie Les Verts is likewise in a position that many thought unthinkable a few years ago. Having been an ascendant force since 2017, they’ve now found themselves being left in the lurch, with what appears to be the simmerings of a civil war within the parting between the various factions that dominate the party (which is actually a coalition of two ecologist parties, but shh, don’t tell anyone).
Alongside this, the question of what on earth the far-right will do is prominent. Torn between a Marine Le Pen who may be dancing her last dance as a presidential candidate, an Eric Zemmour whose candidature has become more of a caricature than anything, and Marion Marechal Le Pen who is waiting in the wings to see which building is left when the implosions begin to occur, nobody knows what the state of the far-right extremist factions will be in six months, or who will be left standing.
The Left Looks to the Future
Former President Francois Hollande attended a key event for Anne Hildago’s Presidential campaign in Limoges, where he was appearing in support of the struggling candidate and ‘showing his loyalty in tough times’.
Unfortunately, for her, however, as she is very unlikely to make it to the second round of the presidential elections, and with the previous announcements that Francois Hollande will potentially be running in the upcoming legislative elections, this act of support took on the look of a a quasi-legislative election campaign event for Hollande.
One particularly interesting statement that the former president made, was that “ It is up to us to be there on the day after the election”, before stating that an initiative to rebuild the left absolutely had to be started.
The reality, if you have been following his recent statements and have knowledge of the recent years of French politics, is that Francois Hollande still feels slighted by the actions of Emmanuel Macron in launching his party after having abandoned the Socialists, and he believes that Macron is responsible for the implosion of the party.
Having not been able to run for re-election in 2017 due to his low approval numbers combined with the splitting of his party membership with La République en Marche.
The question, as it stands, is whether Hollande would be able to galvanise support within the Parti Socialiste following two disastrous elections and the loss of countless strong personalities. While he may be able to take over the party as it stands and if he stood for reelection and was able to win, he would then be tasked with the momentous reconstruction of the party while fighting off an aggressive and currently ascendant Melenchon.
And this is not necessarily something that he will be able to do.