The Weekly Dispatch - 3 July 2022
The Weekly Dispatch - 3 July 2022
Who was reinforced by the legislative 2022 elections? Christian Jacob’s time is over, there’s a government reshuffle incoming, and La France Insoumise take the finance commission.
The Weekly Dispatch is your weekly summary of the major events taking place in French politics, published on Sundays in order to give you the perfect way to catch up with French news and events.
This edition of the Weekly Dispatch was a truly transnational affair, starting at the 75th congress of the Liberal International in Sofia, being partly written in Munich, and then being finished up here in Brussels, which those of you following my adventure on Twitter know was a long endeavour and led to this being shorter than usual.
Polling Update
Here’s an interesting poll on the results of the legislative elections, with those polled being asked whether a party was reinforced (renforcée), weakened (affaiblie) or neither.
It’s also accompanied by a comparison just to the right of the polls from one taking right after the 1st round of the 2021 regional elections.
Top of the list in this poll is the Rassemblement National, which 65% of respondants said was reinforced and only 15% saying it was weakened. This was ahead of even La France Insoumise (42% vs 29%), despite it’s similar success. However, LFI may be seen as weaker as they were heavily dependent on the rest of the left for their success in the last election)
Europe Ecologie Les Verts has a slightly less prominent score (23% vs 42%), similar to the Parti Communiste (20% vs 42), while the old guard of the Parti Socialiste (17% vs 54%) and Les Républicains (16% vs 51%) are stuck in the middle with a score that mimics their perpetual fall from dominance.
However, things get interesting towards the bottom, with Renaissance (13% vs 58) likely being affected by the strong post-legislative communications campaign from the opposition that has marked them as the losers of the elections, despite their majority. They came just ahead of Reconquete (10% vs 61%), who seem to benefit from the simple fact that they exist.
Christian Jacob’s Time is Over
All things come to end, and nowhere is this more true than politics (regardless of what some politicians think or do)
Christian Jacobs, the man who has held the reins of Les Republicains since October. 2019, and who presided over the Republicains primary that led to the disappointing Presidential and Legislative election, has now stepped down as party leader just as he he announced he would.
Having been one of the voices against a Presidential primary focused on giving members the final say, perhaps having seen the extremist views that were waiting in the wings, and having been one of the voices who promoted Xavier Bertrand as the best candidate for the elections, he has seen mixed results from his tenure, and divisions exist within his party about whether or not his work can be seen as successful.
Government Reshuffle Incoming
The time has come for the post-legislative election reshuffle to commence, and we’re expecting news on this to come in this very week!
The government has come out and said that this will be done in one go, without a second round of announcements, in order to keep the focus on the need to govern rather than make some hay out of any spectacular new names who will come through.
One of the big things to expect will be for the ministers who lost their election campaigns and therefore lack the political legitimacy to continue as minister. This would be Brigitte Bourguignon as Minister for Health, Amélie de Montchalin as the Minister for the Ecological Transition, and Justine Benin as Minister of the Sea.
There is also the need to complete the government, which has lost the talented Minister of the Overseas territories, Yaël Braun-Pivet, who was elected as President of the Assemblee National.
There’s likewise the possibility of replacing acting Minister of Solidarity, Damien Abad, who has been accused of several acts of rape and is currently being investigated by the Paris prosecutions office for attempted rape.
If you want to do a little revision ahead of the upcoming government reshuffle, I invite you to have a look at my profile on Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, as well as the entirety of the sitting government.
LFI Take the Finance Commission
This week saw the election of La France Insoumise deputy Eric Coquerel as president of the Assembly’s finance committee, which is traditional a position that is held by the primary opposition force within the assembly.
A strategic and prestigious position, it is a big win for the far-left party, which is continuing to attempt to position itself as the primary opposition to Emmanuel Macron, whilst also trying to keep it's NUPES coalition together.
“The Finance Committee has a role in drafting laws, but above all in controlling the budget. I will use all my prerogatives, which allow me not to flush out this or that political opponent, but to check that we do not go from optimization to tax evasion "
Several things are on the horizon as it stands, with one of the primary goals being to “ensure that the Assembly has time to legislate, debate and decide” rather than, as he puts it, the government often carrying out things with “a push of a button by the Elysée”.
While many may think that there could be fireworks on the horizon, things seem to be getting off to a good start, with Finance minister Bruno le Maire (Renaissance) calling him to have a “republican discussion”, and to also get to know him on a more personal level due to the necessity of working with him.
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