The Weekly Dispatch - 5 June 2022
The Weekly Dispatch - 5 June 2022
The polls get flipped, the French abroad head to the polls, the left struggles against itself, France turns out to be very attractive, and Hollande never gives up.
The Weekly Dispatch is your weekly summary of the major events taking place in French politics, published on Sundays in order to give you the perfect way to catch up with French news and events.
Polling update
Things are beginning to shift slightly in the legislative elections, with Ensemble! (+1%) going up to 27% of voting intention, having taken the lead over NUPES (-4%) who have dropped down to 24%.
Alongside the two coalitions battling for first place, the polls have yet again stayed stable. The Rassemblement National (+-0%) have stayed at 21%, and Reconquete (+-0%) have likewise stayed stable at 7%.
Ultimately, what polls are showing us is that this is effectively a three-horse race with a focus on two of the grouping who are expected to take the vast majority of seats.
Alongside this, the chart produced by Harris Interactive in cooperation with Toluna shows us exactly what we should expect from these votes should they be replicated in voting booths.
Currently. Ensemble! are expected to win an absolute majority, with between 300 and 350 MPs being elected which would give Emmanuel Macron the strength he needs to put forward his electoral programme with little resistance within the Assemblee National.
NUPES, by comparison, are expected to win between 96 to 160 seats, which would allow them to claim the role of primary opposition to the President, with one little caveat: they would need to avoid the implosion of their coalition, which will be no mean feat.
With the Parti Socialist having gone into a political civil war (as many of my readers know) and with fissures opening up rapidly as candidates from across France are being criticised for joining Jean-Luc Melenchon, things will not be easy for the coalition leaders, who will also not be an MP in this legislature.
Aside from these, it’s always interesting news to be gained from how the French view the nation’s political leaders, and here’s a new one from one of the most reliable pollsters in France: IFOP-Fiducial.
Leading the pack is French President Emmanuel Macon (46%) following shortly by Jean-Luc Melenchon (41%), with Marine le Pen (37%) and Fabien Roussel (37%) tying for joint third place. After this, Yannick Jadot (33%) has lost some of his shine over the years, but is continuing to maintain popularity with young people overall.
On the lower end of the scale, Far-Right ally of Marine Le Pen, Nicholas Dupont-Aignan (29%) is continuing to maintain some popularity, keeping his head above both Anne Hidalgo (22%) and Valerie Pecresse (22%) who have both suffered heavily damage to their political reputations, and who now find themselves in the company of Eric Zemmour (19%) who has always been a polarising figure throughout his career.
The French Abroad Head to the Polls!
If you want to know just how dedicated I am to bringing you all the most interesting news from the French political scene, this edition is being brought to you from the French Consulate in Brussels where the French abroad are currently voting in the first round of the election to choose who the deputy for the Benelux will be.
The Left Continues to Struggle against Itself
Putting aside the regular stories of the Socialists fighting over their internal dramas (which may or may not be linked to certain people trying to keep Francois Hollande off the control panel), we have more internal fights happening between NUPES and the left.
Nathalie Arthaud, the spokesperson for the communist “Lutte Ouvriere” party, took aim at Jean-Luc Melenchon this week to criticise his behaviour towards the French public, claiming that he was “taking workers out for a walk from electoral illusion to electoral illusion”
"After his defeat in the presidential election, [Jean-Luc Mélenchon] is now explaining that, ultimately, he must unite with the Socialist Party, which he vilified, which he has always denounced"
Of course, there’s always a sense of territorial struggle in these declarations, with Nathalie Arthaud quickly making it clear that she is trying to position herself as the leader of the only party that can support workers.
France is Very Attractive (Economically)
A yearly study conducted by Ernst & Young looks at the attractiveness of countries, and within Europe we received some very welcome news.
According to this “attractiveness barometer“, France is the number one destination for Foreign Direct Investment in Europe, ahead of the United Kingdom (2nd), Germany (3rd), and Spain (4th).
This good news has been accompanied by some more positive news on the French economic Front, with news coming through that the French debt decreased in 2021.
Going from 114.6% of the French GDP in 2020, it has now been reduced to 112.5% of GDP at the end of last year, showing that following the French response of “whatever it costs” to the COVID-19 pandemic, that things are looking positive for the French economy.
It’s Not Over Until It’s Over
Fresh from having recently given up on his hopes of running in the legislative elections to launch his comeback, it seems that Francois Hollande has other plans in mind for this comeback.
Having recently been questioned by several journalists while visiting a dissident candidate in his former fief, the former president was very clear that he has the 2027 election in his sights.
"It's true, you're right. I think what we are doing here is also a preparation for what will come" he said to reporters when questions on the current dissident campaign fighting against the NUPES campaign. "I believe that this campaign is also preparing for the construction or reconstruction of a political force for 2027"
Clearly, Hollande does not believe in the longevity of Jean-Luc Melenchon coalition, or in the longevity of the far-left populists political leadership, and he may be counting an erosion to also damage his opponents.
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