The Weekly Dispatch - 8 May 2022
The Weekly Dispatch - 8 May 2022
A new legislatives 2022 poll, a political renaissance unfolds in France, we meet the new centrist family, and Manuel Valls makes a rebellion-causing comeback
The Weekly Dispatch is your weekly summary of the major events taking place in French politics, published on Sundays in order to give you the perfect way to catch up with French news and events.
If you have any stories that you think should be included, feel free to contact me directly
Future of the French Dispatch
As mentioned last week, I’m currently looking into feedback for this lovely newsletter of mine which many of you have very enthusiastically told me that you have been enjoying for the past few months.
I’d like to hear from you all about what you enjoyed (or didn’t), what you’d like to see in future, and how the French Dispatch can continue to develop in the months following the end of the 2022 political campaign season.
It is a short, five minute questionnaire, and I would be very grateful for any feedback that you can give!
Polling update
With the Legislative election rapidly approaching, the French population is slowly moving away from the Presidential candidates and turning their collective gaze to the candidates running to represent them within the Assemblée National.
However, like in many countries, local candidates are considered to be an extension of their party and their party leader, and some polling has therefore continued to focus on the approval ratings of the former candidates. This gives us some data that we can draw interesting information from.
The most notable piece of information that we can draw from this polls is that there is not a single candidate who is more popular than they are unpopular, which gives us a look at the current state of French politics, particularly the very diverse political landscape in France. With the varied political positions represented along the political spectrum, it’s increasingly difficult for politicians to gain majority support from the population, but this also hints at a more robust political arena that can only be good for French democracy (or bad, if you take a more party-focused view of the situation).
Alongside this, we’re seeing some of the short-term effects of recent political events. Having “unified” the left under his banner, that Jean-Luc Mélenchon has now found himself overtaking French President Emmanuel Macron in terms of popularity.
Whether this will be durable over the long-term, or if this is just a short-term boost, nobody knows, but the way this election plays out will have an impact on all of the candidates and their political futures.
While this ultimately may not mean anything - and we all remember the repeated announcements that Zemmour, Hidalgo and Pécresse would beat Macron - it’s a fascinating insight into the mentalities and views of the French population, and a fascinating look into the polarisation of politics.
A Political renaissance
During a press conference this week, the leaders of the Presidential Majority came together for a press conference to give us some news on what was going on within the centre of French Politics.
Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe (Horizons), President of the National Assembly Richard Ferrand (LaREM), National Secretary Stanislas Guerini (LaREM) and former Minister François Bayrou (MoDem) all came together to announce their plans for a confederation called “Ensemble !” (Together!) that would bring together the three parties within the presidential majority to fight the legislative elections together.
However, one of the big pieces of news this week was that La Republique en March will no longer be La Republique en Marche, but will instead be renamed to “Renaissance”, bringing its naming into line with its European party, Renaissance Européenne, as well as the Renew Europe Group (which is sadly just a sadly anglicised version).
Currently a political movement, it will also become a fully-fledged, and more importantly, legal, political party, showing that the organisation is maturing and coming into its own, while highlighting how quickly politics can move in France.
Meet the family
With the big news of the reinforced coalition, which will share finances for the upcoming election, we have since seen the first wave of announcements regarding the Legislative election candidates, and there are some heavy hitters on the list to fight the upcoming election.
Jean-Michel Blanquer, Minister of National Education; Gabriel Attal, Government Spokesperson; Elisabeth Borne, Labor Minister; and Gérald Darmanin, the controversial Interior Minister, are amongst the highest profile politicians who have found themselves being invested by their party for the upcoming elections.
However, there have been a few other big names that were part of this first wave: Clement Beaune, Secretary of State for European Affairs; Amélie de Montchalin, Minister of Transformation and Public Service; and Richard Ferrand, President (LaRM) of the Assembly.
With several heavy hitters across the country, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Ensemble ! Coalition were feeling relatively comfortable . However, there has been some minor drama over one relatively well known return to the French political scene…
Valls is back! and causes a rebellion
Manuel Valls, a former Prime Minister under former President Francois Hollande, and a former rival of Emmanuel Macron’s, has become one of the many French politicians who will be fighting for election under the Ensemble ! banner.
Having recently left France to run a problematic campaign to be elected as the Mayor of Barcelona, Valls has been selected to run to become the MP representing the 5th Circonscription of French Citizens abroad, covering Spain, Portugal and Monaco.
Naturally, with his penchant for diplomacy and camaraderie, he has managed to alienate a not insignificant number of the militants that he needs to win his election campaign, but not purely due to his own actions of his reputation.
Unfortunately, nobody seemed to have warned the current deputy within this circonscription, Stéphane Vojetta, who has been very popular amongst militants, and the situation has been hard to digest for many in the region.
The outgoing deputy went as far as to say that he had the “firm intention of being a candidate for his proper succession”, and it’s entirely possible that Valls may find himself staring at yet another electoral failure
Ultimately, this may end up being a set-back that damages the prospects of reinforcing the majority of the Presidential coalition within the French parliament, and could end up hurting Macron’s legislative agenda.