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🌳The National Refoundation Council for Climate

Building upon the campaign promises of President Emmanuel Macron, who said that his second quinquennat would “be ecological or would [simply] not be", we’re seeing the next steps in developing the primary vehicle for his ecological goals.

“Reality is catching up with us hard. We must act strongly, in all areas, and with all players … It's not a question of ideology, it's becoming more and more a question of survival … We don't have a minute to lose.”

Making it clear that her wish is for her government to act “strongly, radically” to achieve their climate goals, she also admitted that there was no “quick fix”, and that it would be difficult: “There is unfortunately no miracle solution to the ecological transition”.

While she would have hoped for climate heavyweights from within her party or coalition, she has unfortunately actually received some commentary that straddled the fence from within the presidential majority, notably from Pascal Canfin:

“The whole logic of this approach is to set goals while at the same time giving yourself the means to achieve them. Setting binding rules, as was done for zero net artificialisation of soils or low-emission zones, is striking, but in the end we end up delaying the application of the rule because no one is ready”

And this was a big question that was coming out of many discussions regarding the National Refoundation Council of the Climate: is the political will there to make these big changes? Is there political will from the oppositions to work with the government? Is it possible for this to be successful.

This depends entirely on the relationship of Renaissance with the parties of the parliament, and how it can build up specific coalitions on certain topics. However, we’ll have to wait and see how the use of Article 49.3 of the constitution will impact these relationships before we can estimate.

⚡ France quits the Energy Charter Treaty

Following on from the decision of both Spain and the Netherlands, France has now withdrawn from the Energy Charter Treaty in order to continue to respect its own climate ambitions.

Having been signed thirty years ago by French President François Mitterrand, it was initially (and supposedly) aimed at making it easier to integrate the energy sectors of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe into European and global markets after the end of the Cold War.

While it did see some success, and having been a useful tool for dispute resolution between state members, it has been increasingly criticised criticised as “protecting polluters”, with activists saying that it has been a significant obstacle to meeting climate treaty goals such as the Paris agreement.

Concrete examples of this exist: in 2021, German energy multinational RWE sued the Netherlands because of it’s goal to phase out coal by 2030; and this September Italy was ordered to pay €180 million to British oil company Rockhopper for denying an offshore drilling permit. France has also been targeting recently by German company Encavis AG.

The hope is that with France having joined Spain and the Netherlands, there will be a domino effect that will push the rest of the EU Member States, and that this will lead to the EU using it’s normative power to either encourage more states to leave, a reinforcement of a more “modernized” version of the treaty itself, or perhaps, the creation of a complete replacement.

🤝Nicolas Sarkozy suggests a political deal

With the ongoing fight and debate around the use of Article 49.3 to pass the annual budget in a hostile parliament, former President Nicolas Sarkozy has waded into the debate to call for an alliance with the right.

Having been interviewed by the Journal du Dimance (a publication that I fully recommend), he had this to say:

“It is not insulting anyone to recall that President Macron comes from the left…I would sometimes like him to cross the Rubicon more frankly, because today France is mostly on the side of the party of authority, firmness and freedom. Call it centre right, centre, right republican, whatever: the strategic axis of the country is clearly there.”

Having assumed his implicit support for Emmanuel Macron during the 2022 Presidential campaign, to the detriment of Valérie Pécresse, who led the party that he himself founded, he was unapologetic about his decision: “If it was to happen again, I would do it again”

“The president has undeniable intuitions and experience. But I observe that he can sometimes be tempted to stop in the middle of the ford. These are the disadvantages of 'at the same time’”

Turning towards the specific topic of article 49.3 of the Constitution, he made a small suggestion that was not at all a political gambit to reinforce the moderate wing of his party:

“[Macron] could also seek to make a political agreement in good and due form with all the good wills ready to constitute a majority in the best interests of the country. We never deny ourselves when we make the choice of the general interest”

🕵️Edouard Philippe under Investigation

Having been the head of the French government during the COVID-19 pandemic, Edouard Philippe was in the process of working on and negotiating Pension reforms, before all of this was interrupted by the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

An increasingly divisive figure within the presidential majority , Philippe has been involved in several disagreements with the government over the direction of policy, and has recently being making the headlines with regularity as he attempts to position himself and his party as the natural successors to Emmanuel Macron and Renaissance.

Unfortunately, there are roadblocks appearing between the aspiring presidential candidate, with a recent investigation into his government’s actions during the early stages in the pandemic, with the Court of Justice of the Republic (CJR) having launched hearings to understand what was happening.

While he has not been formally accused of anything, the hearings were focused on the accusation of “endangering the lives of others” and “voluntary abstention from fighting a disaster”, something that Philippe resolutely denies.

However, there are several serious questions at hand that are making things uncomfortable for him, such as the management of surgical and FFP2 masks, the non-renewal of the national stock of masks at the beginning of 2022, as well as the holding of the first round of the municipal elections.

While it may seem that there is no teeth to this investigation, it should be noted that the former Minister of Health, Agnès Buzyn, was indicted for "endangering the lives of others" in late 2021, and is currently responding to the same enquiries as the former Prime Minister.

One of my curiosities with the entire situation is, if it does become a former investigation, how will this impact his political goals? will this knee-cap his political ascendancy? will this damage his political party? and will this give the initiative back to Renaissance in the competition for 2024 and 2027?

I think so, which is why it would be in his interest to keep fighting to get out of any charges, otherwise he may take a hit that is too severe to recover from politically, and he may remain simply a former Prime Minister.

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