🇫🇷Weekly Dispatch - France is Ready.
A dire polling update for Renaissance and the Jeunes Avec Macron; Emmanuel Macron states that France, as a a nuclear power, is ready for Russia, and; the Horizon bill on mandate-cumulation fails
👋Hey guys, Julien here.
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This week
📊Polling Update
🇷🇺Macron: “We are a nuclear power. We are ready”
🏛️Horizon bill on mandate-cumulation fails
📊Polling Update
As per a previous Dispatch, Renaissance and their governing allies have baptised their new campaign as ‘Besoin d’Europe’ (Bd’E), hoping for a bounce in the polls thanks to a new name, new brand, and new list leader, MEP Valérie Hayer.
Unfortunately, this just hasn’t happened, with the party instead losing -2% in the polls, and dropping to 18%, about 13% behind Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, who are currently cruising at 31%, having gained +3% since the last polls.
In third place, we find a slowly rising Parti Socialiste / Place Publique list led by MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, who gained +1% since the last poll and is currently sitting at 11.5%.
With the eternal discussion regarding when the PS would wake up and regain a leading position, it’s interesting to see that they are taking the lead in their left-and-far-left political coalition, the NUPES, with EELV trailing behind them at 8.5% (-1%), Mélenchon’s LFI dragging at 7% (-0.5), and the Parti Communiste de France relaxing at 3.5% (+0.5).
Further to the right, however, Les Républicains appear to be having more problems, with their score sitting at 7%, having dropped by 1% since the last poll, and looking like they will do worse than they did in the 2019 elections, with it appearing that Reconquête may be eating away at their vote share, as well as Dupont-Aignan’s Debout la France.
Ultimately, it’s looking like the centre ground, from the left (PS), the centre (Bd’E) and “Centre”-right (LR) are going to be in trouble, with the majority of votes going to the far-right and the far-left.
But there’s an even bigger issue when you look at how young people are planning to vote, and if you want to see how the future looks for Emmanuel Macron’s party, well…
A picture says more than 1,000 words, as they say, and Renaissance has an even bigger issue with young people between 18-24 years old than they do with the entirety of the country.
With the project having been one of renewal and having relied on the galvanisation of young people with a pro-European, dynamic message and platform, it appears that the youth vote is all but lost to the Presidential majority, who only have 4% of voter intentions.
Instead, the incredibly worrying thing is that 66% of the youth vote is going to the extremes, with 31% for the RN, 18% for the Ecologists, and 17% going to Mélenchon’s LFI.
And it looks like this may not change anytime soon, with the Jeunes Avec Macrons having a Herculean task on their hands, as their coalition is being dragged behind even the Parti Communiste de France (6%) in the polls, and barely beating Zemmour’s Reconquête (3%).
A dire situation for Renaissance headquarters in France, and one that the party desperately needs to fix if it wishes to have a future.
🇷🇺Macron: “We are a nuclear power. We are ready”
Right, ladies and gentlemen, a lot happened this week on the Ukraine Front, with Emmanuel Macron engaging in several key discourses and strengthened the French position.
Thursday saw a long discussion where Macron addressed the French people and made it clear that French and European security were at stake, and that a Russian victory in Ukraine would be a disaster not only for Ukrainians, but for French and European citizens overall.
The core of the message was, ultimately, that France stands by Ukraine’s, and that allies (Cough Olaf Scholz) should not limit themselves in the support they give (Cough Taurus missiles).
“If the situation should deteriorate, we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war”
It’s clear then, that Emmanuel Macron is putting his political future, and that of his eventual successor from Renaissance or the Presidential Majority in these pledges.
And the most important message that came from the French president?
There are no more red lines, and neither Europe, nor the US, nor NATO should have any either.
He also refused to detail what any potential deployment of French troops would look like, stating that he had “reasons to not be precise” and that he refused “to give [Putin] visibility” over his plans.
However, Emmanuel Macron was also clear on the fact that France would not initiate an offensive against Russia, and that France is not currently at war with Russia despite it’s actions against the French Republic.
Friday then saw the first meeting of the Weimar Tringle in a very long time, with the attempts of Poland, Germany and France to get the alliance back on track, in an attempt to bring this alliance back on track, and to make it a fundamental pillar of the European Union’s security architecture.
The most notable event this week, however, was his reaction to the almost daily renewal of threats of nuclear Armageddon from Vladimir Putin, which are now receiving a well deserved response:
"We must first and foremost feel protected, because we are a nuclear power. We are ready; we have a doctrine [for the use of nuclear weapons]."
The French president’s rhetoric has become strengthened as he finally settles into the position of being the leading politician in Europe, and as he positions France as the global military power that it is, he is working to pull along the rest of the Union along with him.
With the Baltic states supporting his recent statements and the need to become more politically and militarily aggressive, you can expect the rhetoric to continue, and more member states to move towards this manner of thinking.
However, the big issue on hand that we have is whether or not Europe will be able to actually develop it’s industry to the extent that it needs to, and whether or not the Union will be able to increase it’s geopolitical heft within not only NATO and the region, but the wider world, in order to ensure the defeat of Putin and the survival of Ukraine.
Hélas, only time will tell.
🏛️Horizon bill on mandate-cumulation fails
So, back to domestic politics: Horizon’s parliamentary niche this week was an interesting one, with former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe’s party pushing to overturn a keystone law from the François Hollande president:
The ban on accumulation of political mandates.
Effectively, the goal of this law was to ban politicians from being a national deputy, as well as holding a local political mandate in a region, town or city.
The reason: to make sure that deputies focus entirely on their mandate as deputies, and to ensure that there is actual renewal in the political world, with new blood making it through the system.
Naturally, this doesn’t please everybody.
For some, the argument was that this would allow new-ish parties, such as Renaissance and Horizons, to better root themselves locally, and have a better chance of building of a political base .
For some, they simply are just a bit selfish and want more fancy titles and the money that comes with it, let’s be entirely honest.
Regardless, with their Parliamentary niche, they had until midnight of the same day to pass this new law attempting to reduce the ban.
And it looked like they were going to make it work, with support coming from the right and far-right, with Ciotti’s Les Républicains and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National being keen on the effort.
Meanwhile, Horizon’s allies in Renaissance and MoDem appeared to be split on the topic, with deputies within the party leaning both for and against it.
Unfortunately for Horizon, but fortunately for everyone else, this effort failed due to a lack of time, with the left managing to derail the process through a sort of filibuster, and pushing the debate to the end of the day.
However, Horizons Deputy Naïma Moutchou made it clear that they had not given up, and promised that they would “come back” with the bill.
However, there’s a good chance that this will simply lead to increased conflict within the Presidential Majority, with some undoubtedly understanding the terrible optics of this.
Ludovic Mendes from Renaissance, for example, criticising the fact that this was going to be resubmitted, and describing it as a regression.
However, the issue is that, with the next Horizons parliamentary niche likely to see the bill debated and potentially proposed again, will Renaissance be able to stop it from passing, or will they simply see themselves being tarred with the brush of another party’s actions?
We’ll have to see how this plays out.
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Being French, I have been witnessing for years this recovery of elections to the European Parliament by national parties who use this election as a barometer of opinion.
And I find that lamentable.
Because nowhere in the French press do I see the European issue mentioned, nor the nature of parliament, nor the European lists. Is it a coherent analysis to mention the RN without mentioning the European far-right parties in which these groups will position themselves in the European Parliament (ID & ECR)?
When will national politicians finally realize that the European election should not be used as a release?