🇫🇷Le Pen dynasty ends while Penguins get tariffed
Marine Le Pen receives 5-year ban from politics, Olivier Faure works on non-Mélenchonist coalition, and Donald Trump announces tariffs on penguins
👋Hey guys, Julien here. The French Dispatch is a reader-supported publication, and both our coverage of current affairs as well as our ability to bring you more news and information on the world around us is entirely funded by paid subscriptions and donations.
If you enjoy reading articles written by high-level experts, then make sure to support the publication by liking, subscribing, and sharing it with your friends and colleagues, and consider taking a paid subscription.
This week
⚖️Marine Le Pen receives 5-year ban from politics
🌹Faure works on non-Mélenchonist coalition
🐧Donald Trump announces tariffs on penguins
⚖️Marine Le Pen receives 5-year ban from politics
What a week.
As many of you now know this week saw Marine Le Pen and her co-defendants from the Rassemblement National being found guilty of embezzlement by a criminal court in Paris on Monday.
After a prolonged explanation of the situation and the punishment, including the constitutional and legal basis of everything being undertaken, they sentenced Marine Le Pen and eight of her co-defendants.
While the majority of them received some form of heavy fine, including their party, as well as political bans, Marine Le Pen received the worst news: an immediate five-year ban from political office, excluding her ongoing mandate as a deputy, a four year imprisonment sentence, with two firm under house arrest, and a €300,000 euro fine.
For the rest of the punishments:
The Rassemblement National - €4.3 million fine (€2 million suspended)
Julien Odoul - 10 months’ suspended imprisonment sentence, a €20,000 fine, and one year of ineligibility with provisional execution.
Louis Aliot - an 18-month imprisonment sentence (12 months suspended), a €30,000 fine, and a three-year ineligibility period with provisional execution.
Dominique Bilde - an 18-month imprisonment sentence (12 months suspended), a €30,000 fine, and a three-year ineligibility period with provisional execution.
Mylène Troszczynski - an 18-month imprisonment sentence (12 months suspended), a €30,000 fine, and a three-year ineligibility period with provisional execution.
Nicolas Bay - an 18-month imprisonment sentence (12 months suspended), a €30,000 fine, and a three-year ineligibility period with provisional execution.
Bruno Gollnisch - a three-year imprisonment sentence (two years suspended), a €200,000 fine, and a five-year ineligibility period with provisional execution.
Fernand Le Rachinel - a two-year imprisonment sentence (one suspended), a €100,000 fine, and a five-year ineligibility period with provisional execution.
Yann Le Pen - an 18-month suspended imprisonment sentence and two years of ineligibility.
Timothée Houssin - a 10-month suspended imprisonment sentence, €10,000 fine, and one year of ineligibility with provisional execution.
Marie-Christine Arnautu - an 18-month imprisonment sentence (12 suspended), €50,000 fine, and three years of ineligibility with provisional execution.
Speaking to CNN during the week, I talked a little about the consequences of this whole mess, and here are some quick excerpts:
“This could be the end of Le Pen's political career,” French analyst Julien Hoez, editor of
, told CNN. “It also means that the RN's likely candidate for the presidential elections will be Jordan Bardella, who is considered too green to be a strong candidate, and who will have difficulties in drawing the numbers [of support] that Le Pen has been able to raise.”…
“Bardella benefits from being in Le Pen's shadow, and with her removal he is left to himself,” says Julien Hoez. “We will probably see him struggling, having lost a series of debates ahead of the 2024 European elections and other internal debates, and it is possible that he will perform as poorly in the presidential debates as Le Pen did in 2017, when she had a political breakdown.”
…
“Although many people consider her toxic when it comes to her political views, Marine Le Pen is the reason why people vote for RN, because she is a seemingly pleasant and competent figure,” Hoez said. And that reason, at least for now, has just disappeared from the scene.
I also had a quick chat with Forbes where I expanded on the impact of the party:
“Le Pen's conviction - especially if her appeal fails - will mean that the RN has lost its most successful politician and the architect of the party's ‘de-demonisation’ policy” says Julien Hoez, editor of
. “Bardella is a much less politically savvy and experienced player.”“Although Bardella is popular, he shies away from any hard work, and in debates he performs weaker than the more experienced Le Pen."
And a lot of this is very important to keep in mind as we look at the reactions to the news and realignment of this party
Naturally, because the rule of law was actually applied to citizens who had egregiously broken the law and stolen money, people began to complain about liberal elites weaponizing the judiciary and the fact that President Emmanuel Macron had chosen to destroy the career of his opponent.
Despite the fact that he can’t technically run again until 2032, by which point Le Pen will be eligible again.
But who would let reality get in the way of spreading populist nonsense and trying to protect literal criminals, because that’s what all of these people criticising the decision are doing, let’s be honest.
And let’s also face reality: With many media outlets actively focusing on the political ramifications of the decision, and having committed very few words to the sheer criminal machine she had created to funnel public money into her and her party’s coffers, it’s not surprising that this is working.
While I’m preparing a much more in-depth analysis of this topic, you can hear some of my opinions on the discourse around this over at
, , and ’s podcast, The Political Cycle.All of this is leading to a series of protests taking place today, with Marine Le Pen and her protégé, Jordan Bardella, having called for protests today against the legal decision of the independent judiciary at the Invalides. Naturally, this is going to be met with counter-protests who actually care about rule of law in France.
And if you'd like to see the analysis on the Le Pen ban, as well as upcoming articles, then subscribe to this wonderful publication we’ve got going on here in the centre of Europe.
🌹Faure works on non-Mélenchonist coalition
Sticking with French political shenanigans: First Secretary Olivier Faure is making moves ahead of the Parti Socialiste congress in June, and the big one appears to be working to completely sideline far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his party, La France Insoumise.
With Faure having announced his re-election bid back in February, it’s important to look at the man himself, who has struggled since his election to walk the tight-rope that is the post-Macron Socialist Party.
Squeezed between La France Insoumise, which crystallised discontent on the left, the Hollandistes within the party who wanted to overthrow him, the rising star of Raphaël Glucksmann, and the left-wing of Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party, the core of the PS has struggled to do much more than work to right the ship and try to keep their heads above the water.
However, he appears to have chosen to make his move to eliminate at least one competitive factor on the left, penning a contribution for the future congressed titles “The Heart of the Left”, where he argues that the platform he is planning to build for “the non-Mélenchonist left” in 2027 will make it possible to prepare a common candidacy without imposing a socialist candidate.
With the goal being to unify everyone from “François Ruffin to Raphaël Glucksmann”, the process could prove to be quite lengthy. The first step was for Faure himself to sign this contribution, then to table a motion during the upcoming congress, and then to present his candidacy.
With the deadline for all contributions for the congress having been this past-Saturday 5 April, Faure has already had some strong support, with around 4,000 militants, a significant portion of federal secretaries, and mayors, and parliamentarians signing his contribution for a “new socialist project”.
However, Faure’s team are not entirely confident about how this may all play out, with deputy Boris Vaillaud having thrown his hat in the ring as a “reconciliatory” candidate who carries the flag of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) and is a strong supporter of rapprochement with Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Which isn’t necessarily the easiest sell after Mélenchon choosing violence back in February in true Stalinist fashion, and actively attacking everybody in his coalition as traitors who were “supporters of the co-management of Macronism.”
The socialists amongst you audibly gasped at such a violent attack, I know. Please let me know if you need any support.
Back to Faure, however: while is programme is still under construction, much of it is fairly prescient considering the ongoing problems in France, and consistent with the socialist line on policy.
Firstly, a big focus is being put on ensuring that essential education and half services are no further than 20 minutes away from individuals, clearly intended to deal with medical deserts and the needed improvements in education availability..
Alongside this, there is a proposal for ecological efforts not to be imposed on the most vulnerable elements of society if they are not fairly compensated or distributed, a clear hint that he doesn’t plan to deal with a gillets jaunes type situation.
Aside from this, he is also pushing plans to make public funding for private schools conditional, to support a “civic service” for all French citizens, and to regulate the placement of doctors to prevent any medical deserts.
However, we’ll need to see what survive impact with the PS membership, the congress, and eventually, the coalition discussions that will form the actual platform of the left-wing presidential candidacy.
🐧Donald Trump announces tariffs on penguins
The last news of the week which will feature a lot: President Donald Trump’s flying circus has continued to engage in inspired politics, by this week applying 10% tariffs to Penguins living on rocks, amongst others like the “pathetic” European Union.
In a much-awaited tariff announcement that had gone in every direction for several months, Donald Trump finally announced that he was applying a broad 10% tariff rate on everyone, as well as higher rates on countries like the European Union, China, Taiwan, Japan, and Serbia.
Now, as you will have all seen: none of this was actually calculated properly. It appears that Donald Trump’s team randomly decided on these tariffs by making an incorrect calculation, which this chart from this New York Times article highlights:
The big problem that I’ve seen across political and public spheres is that many are trying to ascertain the strategic logic and tactical nuance behind a president and administration that has chosen to aggressively apply tariffs to islands exclusively inhabited by penguins.
Not only this, but they have based their decision not on actual tariff rates, as many analysts have outlined, but rather on calculating the difference between imports and exports, converting this into a percentage, and sometimes adding random figures, such as VAT, to the mix for good measure.
TL;DR - Donald Trump and his team have made the strategic and tactical decision to launch trade wars, based on a misunderstanding of trade, on several rocks inhabited by penguins.
While I'm categorically of the opinion that Trump's tariffs are genuinely problematic and self-destructive, and while they will hurt many, this is yet another excellent opportunity for European federalism to get a leg-up.
As a European Union, we need to examine how we can strengthen our position by reviewing our relationships and dependencies, and assessing how we can enhance our security and safety across all domains.
Thank you for reading the French Dispatch! If you liked what you read, you should like this post and subscribe to the newsletter by clicking/tapping the button below:
And if you’d like to contribute a coffee or two to help fuel my coverage of the wild world of politics, feel free to click on the picture below:
justice served in France, and I am happy to read about your expert comment :)
#teampenguins