🇫🇷Weekly Dispatch - Peaceful Summer

06/08/2023 - Strict government line on Unemployment Insurance, claims of “hidden deficit” in pension system, Macron keeps new 49.3 open for immigration, and Fabien Roussel is most popular on the left

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This week

• 📏Strict government line on Unemployment Insurance

• 📉Claims of “hidden deficit” in pension system

• 🛑Macron keeps new 49.3 open for immigration

• 👍Fabien Roussel the most popular on the left

📏Strict government line on Unemployment Insurance

Hotel de Matignon during an official event (Photo by dominiopublico.gov.br)

Let’s kick this week off with what will be one of the major fights of la rentrée:

Unemployment insurance.

Building upon the campaign promises of Emmanuel Macron, the reform has stuttered over the years, delayed by everything from COVID-19 to the falling through of negotiations with social partners.

Currently, Unemployment Insurance is governed by the deficiency decree of July 26, 2019, which was extended by the 21 December 2022 law on the labour market so that the government could extend these rules until 31 December 2023.

However, that’s not all. The law on the labour market also allows the government to integrate a new reform by decree, allowing it to modulate the duration of compensation for unemployed citizens.

Following the end of the extension period, the government will be forced to negotiate with its social partners, and this is where current discussions stand, with Elisabeth Borne setting a roadmap for these discussions this week.

The key parts of this roadmap are that there is no question of retreating from the previous reform; secondly, the social partners must put forward additional financing for policies favouring employment and training.

As noted across the French news-sphere, this has displeased many employee organisations and left them considering the possibility of not participating at all.

Normally, employee representatives and business leaders lead these discussions and propose compensation terms, however, due to the failure to reach a deal back in 2019, they have been overtaken by Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to take the lead.

This has led to certain changes that the representatives find increasingly difficult to accept: longer contribution periods before accessing unemployment, changes to the calculations of the allowance, and even reductions in the benefit past a cap of €4,850 monthly salary.

📉Claims of “hidden deficit” in pension system

Next up, what is quickly becoming our most frequent subject next to Emmanuel Macron: Pensions!

Very recently, the former finance inspector, Jean-Pascal Beaufret, denounced “presentation gimmicks” that had obfuscated the reality of the pension system’s real deficit, and this has triggered a future debate in the Pension Orientation Council.

Claiming that the public authorities had not told the truth about the reality of the Pension system’s financial health, his voice has been added to those such as François Bayrou, the president of the MoDem party and High Commission for Planning.

The crux of his accusations was published in an article in Commentaire, where he hammered the government, parliament, and court of auditors for having “given up drawing the attention of public opinion … [to] financial reality” and accused them of using a “legal and accounting organisation” system that renders the reality impossible for citizens to understand.

While there’s no way of knowing how this could play out, this is a problem for the government and the President, as this will fuel the opposition’s claims that the government are mocking the intelligence of the French peoples at a time when they attempt to overcome many of these criticisms.

Not only this, but anything that target’s the presidential majority’s reputation for financial and economic stability and competence is incredibly dangerous, with elections on the horizon and the ongoing fight for the future of the coalition in the balance.

🛑Macron keeps new 49.3 open for immigration

President Emmanuel Macron (Photo by Faces of the World)

Turning towards the upcoming political battle that the government will have to engage in, Emmanuel Macron has now waded into the debate on the upcoming immigration law to sprinkle a little spice over the proceedings.

With the usage of article 49.3 to pass the pension reform still in the rear-view mirror, and with many still deeply unhappy about its usage on every side of the political aisle, a recent Presidential interview gave people flashbacks.

Speaking to Le Figaro Magazine, Emmanuel Macron was adamant that he would keep the usage of the infamous article open, stating that he does “not want to be jostled by majorities of fortune or blockages  […]. I will use what the Constitution allows me to do,”

This followed a statement by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who commented similarly about next year’s budget as she stated on BFMTV that she would “continue to take responsibility” and had “no qualms about the fact that our country needs a budget."

There’s one big problem here, however: back in March, Prime Minister Borne had stated that “The method [she was] setting for the future is: no 49.3 outside the financial texts", stating herself that it was “not the right method” and that she wanted to “seek majorities.”

Unfortunately, it seems like this method may not be showing the results Borne and Macron hoped for, as Macron is now attempting to hold the opposition’s feet to the fire and tell them they either get involved or miss out completely.

Ultimately, the goal will be to force opposition parties to contribute to the immigration law, as it not would not only reduce tensions in the Assemblée Nationale and hopefully reinforce the public’s belief in the system but also legitimise the law.

At this moment in time, anything that would reduce tensions can only be a benefit to the French state and the increasingly polarised state of French Politics

👍Fabien Roussel the most popular on the left

Fabien Roussel explaining who is a Comrade and who is not (Kim Jong Un did not make the cut)

And let’s finish up the week with a feel good story for one of our favourite communist politicians in France: Fabien Roussel.

In a recent poll by Les Echos with ELABE, Fabien Roussel topped the popularity list of political personalities amongst left-wing electors, coming ahead of Francois Ruffin and Jean-Luc Melenchon.

With an ongoing power struggle within the NUPES coalition due to growing discontent with the heavy-handed behaviour of Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, this situation poses an interesting problem for this coalition as it tries to figure out what it wants to do for the 2024 European Elections.

With the NUPES coalition having been built exclusively to reinforce La France Insoumise and subjugate the left-wing of French politics in order to give Mélenchon the best chance of winning political power, it’s telling that he’s not in the lead here.

Not only this, but if there’s a challenger to his authority and popularity and even that of his potential successor, there is a chance that this could drive another nail into the existing schism, with Mélenchon having taken a shot at Roussel a few months back.

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