General Thierry Burkhard warns of a “lasting, close and dimensional threat” as France prepares to counter hybrid warfare theatres, with President Macron set to outline next defence steps
Chamberlain looking to the horror of WW1, was unable to look forward to what was to come. Western militaries, even with the experience of the past may not remember how rapidly WW2 evolved and Ukraine's feverish improvisation in their survival battle is probably not envisioned as most traditional planning assumes working from strength.
Putin's objective is unchanged, clear for decades, to extend the empire as far as possible, (Truman's diary hints that he contemplated letting Stalin go at least as far as France) and he will probe anywhere and everything for weakness. We still seem unwilling or unable to grasp that others do not believe as we do and fear to look a determined enemy in the face.
Russia, or at least Russian State Media, designates a different "principal enemy in Europe" every few weeks. Keeps their people clinging to the we're-surrounded-by-enemies trope that so much defines Russian identity over the centuries. All quite unremarkable, really.
Julien, thanks for this. When he said Russia “will constitute a real threat to our borders” by 2030, what do you think he meant? Does he mean that literally, he expects to see Russian troops on France's borders?
"Europe is not choosing a war" - indeed. After the Berlin Wall came down, there was both hope and expectations. Communist Russia, or rather the USSR, opened up to do business with the West, satellite states of the USSR chose independence to which the Kremlin tried hard to push back, but it lost control. Ukraine, along with many others, chose to manage their own destiny, and they got it.
And then along came Putin, the teetotal strongman, a strategic thinker moulded by his past, emboldened by his success in the second Chechnyan war, the horrors of which Europe largely ignored. Then came Georgia, but again, Europe, still asleep, chose business as usual. A rap on the knuckles, ejection from the G8, but more business as usual, followed Putin's invasion of the Crimea and military support for a terrorist separatist movement in the Donbas. The downing of MH17 should have brought everyone to their senses. Russia was no friendly nation, not one that we should continue business as usual, but we did.
Novicok assassination attempts on the streets of Britain, but what did we do? Eject a few Russian agents. Britain was too wrapped up in Brexit, and Russian money too valuable for politicians to make the right decisions. Not just in the UK, but the rest of Europe too. Look at Marine le Pen, sucking up to Russia for funding. She won't have been the only one.
2022 and the full scale invasion of Ukraine led to escalation management. Sanctions gradually introduced, rather than cutting off Russian gas and oil, because? Because we'd made ourselves too dependent on Russia, and not just for fossils. We couldn't afford it. Why? Because all those years no politican was prepared to face the truth, that Putin was following an imperialist agenda that saw the EU and NATO as a threat. East Europeans recognised the Russiannthreat from very early on, which is why they all rushed to join NATO, the umbrella over all of us that helped keep the peace. And most of them were accepted in, but not Ukraine for reasons I will never fathom.
But here we are today. Spending billions to protect Ukraine, and failing miserably. Talk of increasing defence spending to 5% by 2035, well that's not going to worry Putin one bit. Coalition of the Willing? Sounds good to me, but what does it really mean? I can only hope that out politicians have finally woken up and see Russia for what it is. As Hungary remains opposed to more sanctions, or reluctantly agrees every time after getting more concessions out of the EU, perhaps its time to make that coalition of the willing more than just about military support for Ukraine. It should be about cutting off all and any means by which Russia continues to finance its military, a total embargo on all trade with Russia, and secondary sanctions to make it harder to get around them.
Europe is fighting a war against Russia. It needs to get into a fighting mindset, with strategic planning to direct its military assets to the front lines, which today are in Ukraine. Putin had no hesitation placing hardware in Syria, or mercenaries in Africa. Europe countries, the coalition of the willing, need to do the same for Ukraine. Russia will no doubt complain and see this as an escalation. Do out politicans not see that North Korean troops in Europe as an escalation? Putin will do whatever he can to destroy Ukraine in its entirety. What will out leaders do then? Drop sanctions and go back to business as usual, and say 'Oh well, we tried'?
I do fear we've got too many politicians still with their heads stuck in the sand. Macron does make a lot of sense, but France can't go it alone, even though it should try, and hope that others will follow. Germany and Britain, perhaps Italy, and then everyone else who isn't too close to the Kremlin. Churchill didn't wait for a coalition to fight Hitler's war machine. America stayed away from the fight and only joined when it was forced to by Japan. We don't need America this time, or at least not yet. Europe can defend itself, and can beat back Russia, without the Americans, with our economy far bigger than that of Russia. It baffles me why we spend so much time trying to persuade the USA to help, even if they have an obligation under the Budapest Memorandum to help Ukraine defend against their aggressor. But with American politics as it is, we just need to get on with things without them.
"Europeans" may now wonder if their multicultural populations are sufficiently dedicated to each countries national survival to contribute. It is now a far different Europe than pre or post war. Even Britain had some support from Indian soldiers in combat.
You make a very pertinent observation. I saw this with the Brexit vote, where a very significant number of first and second generation immigrants settled in the UK voted agaisnt staying in the EU. It was quite bizarre how they seemed to buy into the 'stop the boats' narrative pushed by the far right groups and the anti-EU campaign organisation.
Chamberlain looking to the horror of WW1, was unable to look forward to what was to come. Western militaries, even with the experience of the past may not remember how rapidly WW2 evolved and Ukraine's feverish improvisation in their survival battle is probably not envisioned as most traditional planning assumes working from strength.
Putin's objective is unchanged, clear for decades, to extend the empire as far as possible, (Truman's diary hints that he contemplated letting Stalin go at least as far as France) and he will probe anywhere and everything for weakness. We still seem unwilling or unable to grasp that others do not believe as we do and fear to look a determined enemy in the face.
Russia, or at least Russian State Media, designates a different "principal enemy in Europe" every few weeks. Keeps their people clinging to the we're-surrounded-by-enemies trope that so much defines Russian identity over the centuries. All quite unremarkable, really.
Macron is the anchor, the through-line, whilst the UK has rotated leaders, Germany and Italy have rotated leaders.
And Macron is unequivocal in his statements and actions, all of which have been pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine.
Of course Russia sees him as the lynchpin to the European alliance.
Julien, thanks for this. When he said Russia “will constitute a real threat to our borders” by 2030, what do you think he meant? Does he mean that literally, he expects to see Russian troops on France's borders?
Good piece, Julian.
"Europe is not choosing a war" - indeed. After the Berlin Wall came down, there was both hope and expectations. Communist Russia, or rather the USSR, opened up to do business with the West, satellite states of the USSR chose independence to which the Kremlin tried hard to push back, but it lost control. Ukraine, along with many others, chose to manage their own destiny, and they got it.
And then along came Putin, the teetotal strongman, a strategic thinker moulded by his past, emboldened by his success in the second Chechnyan war, the horrors of which Europe largely ignored. Then came Georgia, but again, Europe, still asleep, chose business as usual. A rap on the knuckles, ejection from the G8, but more business as usual, followed Putin's invasion of the Crimea and military support for a terrorist separatist movement in the Donbas. The downing of MH17 should have brought everyone to their senses. Russia was no friendly nation, not one that we should continue business as usual, but we did.
Novicok assassination attempts on the streets of Britain, but what did we do? Eject a few Russian agents. Britain was too wrapped up in Brexit, and Russian money too valuable for politicians to make the right decisions. Not just in the UK, but the rest of Europe too. Look at Marine le Pen, sucking up to Russia for funding. She won't have been the only one.
2022 and the full scale invasion of Ukraine led to escalation management. Sanctions gradually introduced, rather than cutting off Russian gas and oil, because? Because we'd made ourselves too dependent on Russia, and not just for fossils. We couldn't afford it. Why? Because all those years no politican was prepared to face the truth, that Putin was following an imperialist agenda that saw the EU and NATO as a threat. East Europeans recognised the Russiannthreat from very early on, which is why they all rushed to join NATO, the umbrella over all of us that helped keep the peace. And most of them were accepted in, but not Ukraine for reasons I will never fathom.
But here we are today. Spending billions to protect Ukraine, and failing miserably. Talk of increasing defence spending to 5% by 2035, well that's not going to worry Putin one bit. Coalition of the Willing? Sounds good to me, but what does it really mean? I can only hope that out politicians have finally woken up and see Russia for what it is. As Hungary remains opposed to more sanctions, or reluctantly agrees every time after getting more concessions out of the EU, perhaps its time to make that coalition of the willing more than just about military support for Ukraine. It should be about cutting off all and any means by which Russia continues to finance its military, a total embargo on all trade with Russia, and secondary sanctions to make it harder to get around them.
Europe is fighting a war against Russia. It needs to get into a fighting mindset, with strategic planning to direct its military assets to the front lines, which today are in Ukraine. Putin had no hesitation placing hardware in Syria, or mercenaries in Africa. Europe countries, the coalition of the willing, need to do the same for Ukraine. Russia will no doubt complain and see this as an escalation. Do out politicans not see that North Korean troops in Europe as an escalation? Putin will do whatever he can to destroy Ukraine in its entirety. What will out leaders do then? Drop sanctions and go back to business as usual, and say 'Oh well, we tried'?
I do fear we've got too many politicians still with their heads stuck in the sand. Macron does make a lot of sense, but France can't go it alone, even though it should try, and hope that others will follow. Germany and Britain, perhaps Italy, and then everyone else who isn't too close to the Kremlin. Churchill didn't wait for a coalition to fight Hitler's war machine. America stayed away from the fight and only joined when it was forced to by Japan. We don't need America this time, or at least not yet. Europe can defend itself, and can beat back Russia, without the Americans, with our economy far bigger than that of Russia. It baffles me why we spend so much time trying to persuade the USA to help, even if they have an obligation under the Budapest Memorandum to help Ukraine defend against their aggressor. But with American politics as it is, we just need to get on with things without them.
"Europeans" may now wonder if their multicultural populations are sufficiently dedicated to each countries national survival to contribute. It is now a far different Europe than pre or post war. Even Britain had some support from Indian soldiers in combat.
You make a very pertinent observation. I saw this with the Brexit vote, where a very significant number of first and second generation immigrants settled in the UK voted agaisnt staying in the EU. It was quite bizarre how they seemed to buy into the 'stop the boats' narrative pushed by the far right groups and the anti-EU campaign organisation.