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For sure, Barnier is a canny move. France is more right-wing than socialist at the moment. A man from a small party to the right, pro-Europe unlike le Pen's Rassemblement Nationale party, should both please & displease the RN & their more ardent supporters. The left, despite their newly formed public face of unity in the NFP (Nouveau Front Populaire), remain divided & likely more so now. If the NFP don't like the idea of RN being king makers, then it's down to them to work with the centrist Ensemble, which they've ruled out until now.

Macron's PM choice may not survive, but should he do so, the French will get to 'try' the more right wing RN as they'll certainly be more visible over time. Such visibility may well be a gamble, but I see it as a way to coax the left into a more conciliatory mood and work with the centre.

Despite the RN gains this year, and Gilets Jaune & farmer protests, the French are more comfortable in the centre and engaging with the rest of Europe, than as a country that's going down the road of extremism.

Might the NFP leadership approach Ensemble now and try to form a working relationship with them? That would be the better outcome, removing the need for RN support altogether, which many French will be uncomfortable with.

If the NFP really don't like the new arrangement, then they should start talking to, and working with, Ensemble before the ship sails. That's assuming Ensemble members would prefer to veer to the left, that is. And if the left don't engage, they'll only keep blowing hot air for another two years, and maybe block an autoroute or two along the way - a sure fire way of ensuring more people get turned off by Melechon and the left.

France would really sit more comfortably with a left of centre socialist government, but it hasn't quite yet worked out how to respond to the tide of populism that's washed over Europe's shores. My feeling is that Macron has skilfully negotiated France through a turbulent period where the far-right have made huge gains, but not enough to take over the reins of power. Only now they are visible enough for the French to better decide, as everyone should have a much finer grasp of the politics, at a time when it will matter most - in 2027 when they go to the polls and choose their new president.

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This is quite insightful Chris.

The NFP attempted to sail off with their own ship with Lucie Castets, to use your analogy. Their ship sunk just as Macron set sail with his own.

They went their own way and did so with considerable force. While it failed, they cannot be seen to just jump onto Macron's ship without some complaint. This will come eventually, especially as they might want to influence the bills of the future government.

The same is happening with the RN. They wish to show that they're not bowing to Macron. They have hinted at the possibility of a motion of censure. But ultimately, they will work with the new government as well.

It's negotiation. You have to disagree with the aim of eventually agreeing on something. Otherwise nothing is gained for anyone.

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Many complained Macron's choice to nominate a notorious conservative like Barnier is a slap against the "Republican Front" wich kept MLP away from a majority. My guess instead he's taking as a fact 38% of French voters choose the RN and he want to cut ground out from their feet.

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